What Hibs can expect from 'Jekyll and Hyde' Aberdeen

The teams have met once already this season, with the Hibees prevailing 2-0 in September under the interim management of David Gray, thanks to goals from Adam Le Fondre and Christian Doidge.

But Hampden under the lights is a different proposition entirely, with both teams heading for Glasgow in the knowledge that a place in the final - and a crack at the first silverware of the season - awaits the victor, against either Rangers or Hearts.

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Here, the Hibs Observer analyses the opposition's strengths and weaknesses.

Overview

The Dons have typically set up in one of two formations this season, a 3-4-2-1 or a 5-4-1. Either way, they have consistently deployed three centre-backs in Richard Jensen, Slobodan Rubezic and Stefan Gartenmann. Summer signing Nicky Devlin has been a reliable presence at right wing-back, with Jack McKenzie preferred on the opposite side.

Midfield has been less settled, with Leighton Clarkson and Connor Barron both flitting in and out. Graeme Shinnie and Jamie McGrath have been regular features, as has the in-form Bojan Miovski up top. After a scintillating first season in Scottish football, the mercurial Duk hasn’t hit those same heights so far this term, and he too has found himself in and out of the side.

Even a cursory glance at Aberdeen’s results betrays a real Jekyll and Hyde tendency. There has been a brilliantly executed win over Rangers at Ibrox, a very creditable performance away at Eintracht Frankfurt, and a resounding win away at Motherwell just this week. Those are displays which make dire outings at Tynecastle and Rugby Park all the more puzzling.

Simply put, it’s nigh-on impossible to predict which Aberdeen will turn up at Hampden on Saturday.

How do they play?

Much like their overall record this season, it can be difficult to make complete sense of what they’re all about. Aberdeen have shown the ability to be a decent passing side, but there have been games where they’ve clearly been sent out to engage in some attritional long ball warfare.

Their last two fixtures provide a useful snapshot. Away at Kilmarnock last weekend, they turned in a truly baffling display in all aspects. Defensively, they were exploited and went down 2-0, while in-possession their gameplan seemed to consist mostly of launching balls in the general direction of Duk and Miovski.

Direct play has been a feature of Robson’s approach since he took over, seeking to use the contrasting, but often equally potent, attributes of his two forwards, supported by players advancing from midfield. In the likes of Shinnie, Barron, and Clarkson, they have players who can pick up second balls and give their team a foothold in the final third.

It can clearly be effective, as demonstrated by the Dons’ late run to third-place in the Premiership last season, but on off days it turns turgid, as was the case against Killie. Aberdeen offered next to nothing in attack, registering just 0.26xG.

You could say their unpredictability then made it entirely predictable that they would sweep Motherwell aside on Wednesday, and that’s exactly what happened. There seemingly will always be a directness about Aberdeen under Robson, but the contrast in how they passed the ball between the two matches is stark.

The passing network graphics below show the average positions in which players passed and received the ball, and the thickness of the lines between players depicts how often they connected in-game. As is evident, against Kilmarnock, long balls from the full-backs towards Duk and Miovski were about the only feature of Aberdeen’s build-up. In that game, they deployed their 3-4-2-1 shape before switching to 5-4-1 against Motherwell.

The headline passing stat displays the contrast: Aberdeen attempted 550 passes against Motherwell compared to just 370 against Kilmarnock. At Fir Park, you can see how much more often their midfielders linked up with the defence and lone forward in Miovski.

Their second goal is a good example of how they can be very effective. Gartenmann plays direct into Dante Polvara, who has moved high almost as a second striker.

The American holds the ball in and waits for runners, this time provided by Jamie McGrath, who takes over possession and looks forward.

He slips a pass through into the box for Miovski, who has set off as soon as McGrath gets the ball, and although the striker is tackled, Devlin has surged forward in off the right and is in the right place to apply the finish.

The above was the most successful example of a repeated pattern in Aberdeen's attacking play. When they assume possession in the right-back area - whether it's Devlin or the right-sided centre-back, usually Gartenmann - they will look to find a striker, providing the trigger for midfielders to make forward runs.

Aberdeen also present a threat from deal balls. As shown on the radar below, their set-piece xG of 0.39 per 90 minutes is among the highest in the league, and with a number of physically robust players on the pitch, they are able to flood the box at corners and free-kicks.

The radar also bears out what's clear with the naked eye - that the Dons will go long from goalkeeper Kelle Roos more often than not, then look to contest second balls. Hibs lost a poor goal from a transition off a long punt against Rangers, and this is no doubt something will be ensuring they are alert to on the training ground this week.

Weaknesses

As direct as they can be themselves, dealing with the same tactic going the opposite way has not been Aberdeen’s strong suit of late. Kyle Vassell’s goal against them last weekend was the perfect example, with Kilmarnock going long from the back, winning first and second balls to allow their captain to drive into the box and get his shot away.

Hibs’ first goal in the Pittodrie win back in September comes from a long ball forward from Will Fish being flicked on by Adam Le Fondre. Christian Doidge gambles and keeps the ball in play, and his chip back into danger is laid off by Joe Newell for Le Fondre to fire home.

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Hibs will almost certainly look to exploit wide areas on Saturday. Aberdeen's wing-backs, albeit not overly offensively-minded, do have responsibility for providing attacking width, but they will face a tricky balancing act if Elie Youan and Martin Boyle are deployed on the flanks.

A potential weakness of any 3-5-2 variation is its susceptibility to balls down the sides if the wing-backs are caught forward. This can drag a centre-back into an area they'd rather not go, and create one-v-one situations. Indeed, Hibs almost scored from such a scenario on their September visit to Pittodrie.

Hibs defend a corner and the ball drops to Newell at the edge of the box, who shows composure to create some space. By then, Youan is already on the move down the left, with full-back Angus MacDonald trying to recover ground.

Newell takes him out the game with a fine pass over the top, and it forces centre-back Rubezic to try and cover. Youan, however, is far too quick, racing away from the Serbian and eventually getting a shot on target.

Aberdeen will be mindful of this threat on both sides - perhaps even more so on a huge pitch like Hampden - but defending against it is tricky, because even if the wing-backs look to play more conservatively, this limits the Dons as an attacking force.

There's much to ponder on both sides ahead of this one, and it looks likely to be decided by fine margins.