The staggering points total Hibs surrendered to late goals

Of course, the anguish for Nick Montgomery, his players, and their long-suffering fans has been far more grave. A confirmed bottom-six Premiership finish has created a sombre mood around Easter Road, the second such outcome in three years.

Any review of the campaign's failings will immediately highlight Hibs' baffling tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. Namely, conceding late goals.

There's been a palpable sense of dread hanging over matches in which Montgomery's side enter the latter stages either level or ahead and for good reason. It's been an all-too-common occurrence for supporters to depart matches wondering what might have been - a thought which can now be applied to the season as a whole.

But just how damaging have these late goals been to Hibs? We've dug into the numbers to provide answers.

A depressing theme

Hibs have conceded 13 goals from 119 shots in the final 15 minutes across the season so far, from an xGA (expected goals against) of only 9.51. That shows a clear discrepancy in the number of goals StatsBomb's algorithm would anticipate Montgomery's side conceding based on the shots faced.

With the exception of Celtic and Dundee, all the other top six sides conceded less goals in the final 15 minutes than their xGA predicted. Hibs, on the other hand, shipped considerably more, emphasising just how significant a weakness it has been over the course of the campaign. 

What's more, the cumulative xG of all those 13 goals was just 1.94, indicating that the chances alone did not have a high probability of being converted. As demonstrated in the graphic above, the blue data points indicate chances that were considered low xG, and there are considerably more of those than higher xG opportunities.

Post-shot xG can provide a clearer picture here - that being the xG of a shot after the player has struck it - as the number then rises to 7.61. Post-shot xG can help measure whether the scoring player's shot is more accurate than their positioning suggests, and in this sample it does somewhat indicate that Hibs have been the victims of high-quality efforts. Not that that will bring comfort to supporters and of course, it can't and doesn't entirely explain away this trend, especially when it has been so prevalent and so damaging to Hibs' league ambitions this season.

Exploring points differential

Not all goals conceded late in matches are the same. The true measure of their impact on Hibs' season is how each concession influenced the outcome of a match. If a team is 3-0 up and gifts a late concession to win 3-1, its only potential impact is on goal difference.

Hibs, though, have dropped 22 points from goals conceded in the last 15 minutes. That being goals lost from positions where they were either drawing or winning. For comparison, the teams who finished third, fourth, fifth and six pre-split all dropped far less by this measure.

Hearts surrendered only five points in the final 15 minutes, with Kilmarnock and St Mirren dropping ten, and Dundee losing 20. Given the Dens Park outfit beat Hibs to the top six by a mere point, it underlines just how costly these late lapses have been for Montgomery's side.

The burning question then, surely, is why? There have been many factors - in fact, almost a perfect storm to ensure Hibs were denied time and again. When it first became apparent this was an issue earlier in the season, Montgomery conceded that there may have been a psychological factor at play, a demon he hoped had been vanquished when Hibs dug in to see out a 1-0 victory over Kilmarnock at Easter Road in November, despite the visitors' late onslaught.

But the problem has persisted. There has been an element of misfortune, certainly, with the 98th-minute concession at Ross County in March now looking particularly galling. On that occasion, the officials blundered badly to wrongly award County a throw-in from which they scored seconds later, with rules stipulating that VAR could not intervene.

In that same instance, though, it was a loss of concentration from Élie Youan that allowed Yan Dhanda to apply the finish. In December's Edinburgh derby, Rocky Bushiri's mistake let Lawrence Shankland in to score, and it was an ill-judged tackle from Joe Newell that allowed Celtic to snatch victory from the penalty spot at Easter Road in February. And there have been other, similar incidents. It's clear then, that individual errors have been a theme. That brings the psychological element back into play, as you can argue that players are more likely to make these mistakes amid the anxiety that comes with repeated late concessions.

How do Hibs fix this?

There's no easy answer. From Montgomery's perspective, he will likely feel that these scenarios could have been avoided, in some instances, by his own team being better in front of goal. There was a period recently when the manager was speaking weekly about his desire for Hibs to be more ruthless in front of goal, to capitalise on chances created, and put matches to bed. Last Saturday's draw with Motherwell was just the latest case in point, with Hibs passing up numerous openings in the game, to the point where it felt as though everybody knew what was coming long before Shane Blaney smashed in the equaliser.

READ MORE: Hibs defender says sorry for too many 'sloppy moments'

Eradicating individual defensive errors would also help significantly, and new signings will certainly arrive in the summer with the aim of making Hibs more solid. Fresh arrivals not bearing the scars of this season may be the most important factor in bringing long-term stability to a fragile backline.

Game management can certainly improve, too. The best teams know how to shut down matches and prevent opponents from building momentum as the clock ticks towards full-time, and it has often felt like Hibs could have been more streetwise both in terms of on-field actions, and use of substitutes to eat up time late on. Again, adding more experience in key areas should help address this.

One way or another, though, this galling trend must be dramatically reversed if Hibs are to progress next term.