It can be a lonely old existence between the sticks.
Josef Bursik will have felt that more than once this season, with Hibs' number one enduring a difficult first few months in Scottish football. Signed on loan from Club Brugge during the summer as David Gray's number one, the 24-year-old is a former England under-21 internationalist and played more than 50 games for Stoke City, thus arriving at Easter Road with a good reputation.
Bursik, though, hasn't lived up to his billing as yet. He's been far from the only summer arrival to attract criticism, but such is the nature of goalkeeping, every mistake is amplified that bit more.
Here, we dig into the StatsBomb data for a fuller understanding of Bursik's season-to-date, how he compares to his Premiership compatriots, and Hibs predecessor, David Marshall.
Individual performance
Statistics around goalkeepers have often been more difficult to apply effectively compared to outfield players, so different is their role. We gauge the league's best striker on number of goals scored, but we wouldn't automatically assume the goalkeeper to concede the most is the worst in the division, such is the range of factors involved.
StatsBomb provides separate metrics for goalkeepers, and below are Bursik's numbers against the Premiership average.
Immediately apparent from Bursik's stats are a low shot-stopping percentage and goalkeeper on-ball value (OBV). OBV assigns value to a 'keeper's actions to prevent a goal, with Bursik currently scoring -0.38, ranking him among the very bottom percentiles.
He scores better for crosses claimed above average, a measure of how willing keepers are to claim balls played into the box and is also among the best-performing across the division for positioning, making few errors.
This does, however, suggest other areas have been lacking.
Key comparisons
Like just about everyone else in green and white during the 2023/24 campaign, David Marshall did not escape some sharp criticism in his final season, and there was a feeling that Hibs would look to replace him even before he announced a decision to retire.
But despite a perception the 39-year-old was on the decline, Marshall remained among the better Premiership performers, at least according to StatsBomb. Among their key metrics for goalkeepers is 'goals saved above average' (GSAA). The technical definition is the number of goals saved/conceded versus expectation, which is calculated using the post-shot expected goals (psXG) figure. PsxG takes into account not only the quality of the chance for the attacker, but the quality of the shot they then take.
In simple terms, a goalkeeper's GSAA score shows whether they make saves they wouldn't be expected to, versus conceding from shots they would be expected to save. It's a useful measure of how their performances impact a team's results, and Marshall ranked fourth in the league behind Kelle Roos of Aberdeen; Kilmarnock's Will Dennis - who was on loan from Bournemouth. and Dimitar Mitov of St Johnstone, with a score of 0.16.
Bursik is currently ranked eighth among 13 keepers who have played 600 minutes or more, with a score of -0.26, indicating he has made fewer saves than the StatsBomb model expects him to.
This will be a contributing factor, although not exclusively so, in Hibs' underperforming their expected goals against so far this season. They have conceded at a rate of 1.5 goals per 90 against an xGA of 1.11 per 90. Of course, it would be unfair, and inaccurate, to attribute that to Bursik saving fewer shots than expected, but it is still a factor.
By contrast, Aberdeen are conceding 0.91 goals per-90 minutes against an xGA of 1.18 - higher than Hibs. Dons 'keeper Mitov is currently saving more shots than expected, with a GSAA score of 0.24.
Indeed, four (Celtic, Aberdeen, Rangers, and Motherwell) of the five sides in the league overperforming their xGA have goalkeepers saving more shots than expected. The Aberdeen example shows how even modest goalkeeper overperformance can have a significant impact on results.
A factor in late collapses?
The rate at which Hibs have surrendered points in the final stages of matches will inevitably put scrutiny on the man tasked with keeping the ball out of the net, and we can analyse his role in them. Hibs have faced six shots while in winning positions in league matches this season, and five of them have resulted in goals - a stat that could probably command its own article, as shown in the graphic below.
Most of them have had high post-shot xG, indicating good-quality finishing. Simon Murray's late equaliser in the 2-2 draw with Dundee has the lowest value (0.25, indicating that his shot would be expected to find the net 25 times out of 100), with the shot going under Bursik as he rushes to close down the angle.
Two, however, have been penalties, and the others registered psxG of 0.87 (James Wilson for Hearts) and 0.83 (Luca Stephenson for Dundee United).
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Goals are about more than just the final finish, though, and it's difficult to argue Bursik hasn't negatively contributed to some passages which preceded them - coming for the ball, missing it, and colliding with defender Jack Iredale before Meshack Ubochioma's 99th-minute Tannadice winner, and being unable to hold a ball in the phase of play before Wilson's derby leveller at Easter Road.
These are the moments that don't register in the data, straying into more intangible areas around leadership and being a commanding presence that defences can rely upon, but again it shows Hibs need more from their current number one.
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