Why Hibs can balance Celtic errors against long term identity pursuit

A 4-1 defeat is hard to stomach for any manager, regardless of circumstances, and the Hibs boss felt his team proved their own worst enemy on the night. They certainly made the worst possible start, conceding sloppily from a corner in the opening five minutes, the ball ricocheting off Oh Hyeun-gyu and into the net.

As half-time approached, Matt O'Riley was allowed to saunter into the box unchecked to head home Luis Palma's cross, a hammer blow to Hibs' hopes of recovery. Their pain was compounded a mere six minutes following the restart, with Palma stroking home from 12 yards after Lewis Stevenson, after a VAR intervention, was ruled to have fouled Alistair Johnston.

Will Fish was then caught napping as he attempted to deal with a Callum McGregor pass, allowing Oh to brush him aside and fire beyond David Marshall. Christian Doidge reduced the deficit following good work Elie Youan, but it was too little, too late for Montgomery's side. 

Premiership teams have enjoyed success against Celtic this season by limiting them in the early stages. Kilmarnock (in the Viaplay Cup), St Johnstone, and twice Motherwell have kept a lid on the champions' attacking ambitions in the opening exchanges, with the result tending to be that if Celtic cannot find an early goal, they have struggled to get into their stride.

But the xG race chart - which demonstrates how teams created chances over time - shows that Celtic managed to build an early platform on which to press home their advantage. Granted, Hibs do not play as conservative a style of football as the likes of St Johnstone did, but it remained vitally important not to allow Celtic to build a head of steam, whether that was through defensive diligence or retaining possession.

READ MORE: Every word from Nick Montgomery Hibs Q&A after defeat at Celtic

As demonstrated above, Hibs' xG never really got off the ground at all until shortly before half-time. In his post-match interview, Montgomery felt that the penalty award - one he insisted was soft - stifled what had been a positive start to the second period for Hibs. The chart shows he has a point, with Hibs' xG creeping upwards after the restart, suggesting they were taking a foothold in the game.

The penalty award, and Palma's conversion of it, proved a real 'wind from the sails' moment, with Oh adding the fourth just three minutes later. It is faint praise for a side 4-0 down, but Hibs, at least, did not completely capitulate from that point.

Perhaps Celtic eased off the accelerator with such a healthy advantage, but Hibs did begin threatening even before Doidge found the net. Youan easily had the beating of Nat Phillips, tiptoeing past him and hitting the post prior to setting up his team-mate for the consolation goal.

Interestingly, Hibs' cumulative xG (1.76)  was the highest it's been at Celtic Park since 2018, when Neil Lennon led the team to a 4-2 defeat. It is the highest accumulated by a Premiership side at the home of the reigning champions so far this season, with the average xG created by the away side in the previous seven Celtic home matches being 0.6. It doesn't change the outcome, of course, but it indicates Hibs created higher quality chances at Celtic Park than their league counterparts.

And, again, you don't get points on the board for xG, but it can indicate where a team is currently at, in terms of attacking performance. Is it enough to seriously trouble Celtic at this point in time? No, but this is a team still in the early stages of its development, with a manager keen to take an alternate to heading to Glasgow's east end in full damage limitation mode.

Compare Hibs on Wednesday night to Aberdeen, a club of similar stature and ambition, setting up for a siege back in November and still shipping six goals. Their 0.18xG that day was the lowest of any team going to Celtic Park, and among the worst of any Premiership match, this season. They completed only 165 passes, and initiated only six more pressures than Celtic, despite having only 23 per cent possession.

Hibs completed 339 passes on Wednesday, and pressed Celtic 200 times. Yes, the only statistic that really matters over 90 minutes shows that both teams lost comfortably, but which group of players will have left Glasgow closer to their long-term aims? Montgomery has shown enough, thus far, for his ideas to be given time, and that will likely involve enduring some pain along the way against sides with vastly superior resources.

Within the context of this match, though, there are obvious areas for improvement.

Celtic's shot map makes it plain that Hibs allowed the hosts too many efforts inside the penalty area. Of their 27 total shots, 22 were from inside the 18-yard box, and their 3.31 xG suggests the result did not flatter Brendan Rodgers' side.

There was a self-inflicted element, too, with the failure to defend the early corner, and to track O'Riley's run at the second, particularly preventable. Fish, meanwhile, will now need no reminder of the dangers of not knowing who's approaching on your blindside. The ease with which Oh was able to nudge him aside betrays the fact that Fish clearly had no idea the striker was approaching.

READ MORE: Hibs instant analysis as Celtic hit Monty's side for four

This wasn't a great Hibs performance, by any means, but is there more merit in sticking to the team's principles against Celtic than parking the bus and still losing anyway? In terms of long-term development, I'd argue there is.