It all comes down to this weekend for Hibs.
A top-six finish is not yet out of reach, but Nick Montgomery's side require everything to go their way over the coming days - and possibly beyond, weather permitting - in order to avoid dropping into the bottom half of the Premiership table
With five of the six top places already decided, it's now a three-way battle between Hibs, Dundee, and Motherwell to snap up the last spot. Dundee - with two pre-split games remaining - are currently a point clear of Hibs on 39 points, with Motherwell two behind Hibs on 36.
That creates a range of scenarios with the Hibees set to head for Fir Park on Saturday, and Dundee rounding off at home to Rangers on Wednesday followed by a trip to Aberdeen on Saturday.
Here, we've explained every outcome, and the post-split fixture schedules that could follow for Hibs.
Available scenarios
Firstly, nothing else matters if Dundee beat Rangers on Wednesday night. That would take them four points clear of Hibs and secure their place in the top six.
However, should Rangers prevail at Dens Park, it all hinges on Saturday's final pre-split fixtures. The most clear-cut scenario that gets Hibs into the top six is beating Motherwell, and Dundee losing to Aberdeen. That would take Montgomery's side onto 41 points to Dundee's 39.
If Dundee lose to Rangers, draw with Aberdeen, and Hibs beat Motherwell, that would also do for Hibs by a single point - 40 to 39.
Even if Dundee get draws against Rangers and Aberdeen, taking them to 41 points, Hibs would still get into the top six if they beat Motherwell, by way of having a superior goal difference.
Of course, Hibs prevailing in Lanarkshire is no guarantee given this team's inconsistent tendencies. Motherwell are a team they have yet to beat this season - losing in Lanarkshire in August, and drawing at Easter Road in January.
The Steelmen will have been given a significant lift by their dramatic 3-2 win over Dundee last week, one that kept this sprint for the split alive. If Dundee lose both their games this week, Stuart Kettlewell's side can take sixth place by beating Hibs, so they, potentially, have plenty to play for heading into this fixture.
For now, though, all eyes turn to Dens Park on Wednesday night. That being said, amid ongoing concerns about Dundee's pitch and further heavy rain forecast, there is a scenario where their match with Rangers is postponed, prolonging the finalisation of top and bottom halves beyond this coming week.
Dundee managing director John Nelms told Sky Sports on Tuesday that the club are currently 'as confident as they can be' that the match will go ahead as planned, with contingency plans in place to reschedule across April 16/17 if required.
Potential post-split fixtures
Finishing in the top six, if nothing else, is certainly more enticing from a fixture standpoint. It would guarantee another Edinburgh derby, matches against Celtic and Rangers, and the (admittedly slim) chance of pushing for the European places.
Based on already completed fixtures against these teams, and the number of home and away matches already played, a top-six finish for Hibs would likely bring about the following matches (in no particular order):
- Hearts (home)
- Celtic (away)
- Rangers (home)
- St Mirren (away)
- Kilmarnock (home)
The above would ensure Hibs have hosted/visited each team in the top six twice across the entire season, albeit these schedules can be subject to change - sometimes teams are extra to visit an away ground for the third time in a season to facilitate an overall balance of home and away matches.
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If Hibs do not reach the top six, they should be far enough away from the relegation mire for that not to become an issue post-split, but that would create a succession of matches of little consequence. The bottom-half schedule could look something like this (in no particular order):
- Motherwell (home)
- Ross County (away)
- Aberdeen (home)
- Livingston (away)
- St Johnstone (away)
Again, this would ensure Hibs finish neatly having visited and hosted each time twice.
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