In just under a year of covering Hibernian Football Club, I quickly learned that outright predictions are, more often than not, a mug’s game.

Last season, amid some not-entirely-reliable injury updates from ex-manager Nick Montgomery, it was hard enough to call who would make the squad on a Saturday, never mind what would happen after 3pm. It’s now David Gray’s job to achieve plainer sailing for the campaign to come, but it remains a tough task to assert just what to expect at Easter Road this season.

A clearer picture will likely emerge by the time the transfer window closes, with Hibs looking to add depth across the pitch to give their first-time head coach the best possible chance of breaking a cycle that has burned through five managers in five years. But with their Scottish Premiership season commencing at St Mirren on Sunday, the scrutiny will start long before transfer deadline day comes and goes. 

Gray is arguably better placed than anyone to read the mood of a support who are giving him their full backing, yet it would be presumptuous to say that there is an optimistic consensus among them for what’s to come. The fragile temperament of a fanbase who have been worn down by disappointment in recent years has already been on display this summer, a 1-0 loss at League One side Kelty Hearts in the Premier Sports Cup serving a stark reminder that the agitation stirred up by a bitterly disappointing 2023/24 season is still bubbling under the surface.

Considering Hibs racked up four and five-goal victories in their other group games, and that the starting XI was one we are unlikely to see again, seems enough to grant Gray the benefit of the doubt in dismissing it as an untimely blip. Caveats around the level of opposition apply, obviously, but his Hibs have looked more purposeful and aggressive than the passivity that permeated much of Montgomery’s short reign.

But what pre-season and the cup campaign have laid bare is the thinness of his squad. On the day at Kelty, Gray was unable to call on an alternative out-and-out striker to offer a fresh threat, and the jury remains out on whether Dylan Vente can be the man to finish the chances that Hibs have shown they can create for him. The Dutchman started promisingly with a hat-trick against Elgin City but has misfired since. Hibs are exploring the possibility of bringing back Ukrainian striker Mykola Kukharevych on loan from Swansea City, the striker having been popular during a previous spell in Leith that was unfortunately hampered by injury.

With the EFL Championship side also short of options and seemingly struggling to recruit, any potential return seems unlikely to be imminent. And therein lies the concern Hibs fans harbour two days before the league season commences at one of the country’s trickiest venues. After recruiting goalkeeper Josef Bursik and a centre-back duo in Warren O’Hora and Marvin Ekpiteta, completed business has slowed to a near-halt. Work continues behind the scenes, of course, but only backup goalkeeper Jordan Smith has signed on in the intervening weeks. And although Gray has struck a consistently diplomatic tone in addressing the situation, it’s a less-than-ideal scenario so close to the league opener.

The arrival of Malky Mackay as sporting director precipitated structural changes behind the scenes, and it was, perhaps, always likely that it might slow up certain elements of the summer transfer operation. Euro 2024, too, has contributed to a relatively pedestrian market across the board as participants were given extended breaks, forcing clubs to hold onto players who might otherwise have moved on by now, just to ensure pre-season squads are filled.

None of that, though, will mean much to the paying customers if Hibs make a poor start to the season. The argument will be made that the club were well aware a significant refresh of the squad was required this summer, even amid the complications thrown up by the ineffective recruitment of the recent past. Hibs still have a number of well-paid players unlikely to feature under Gray, players whose contracts have, at least, another year left to run. That poor squad management is not Mackay’s fault, and he has spoken plainly about how it will take time to rectify. The deals he has agreed thus far have been positive, with Ekpiteta and O’Hora looking the part, and fees generated for others on their way out.

If they can acquire the right options in attacking areas between now and the window closing, Gray will possess a squad well-placed to improve on last season.
Even as things stand, there remains a feeling that this Hibs team was less than the sum of its parts last term. A marked improvement on the eight-placed finish should be more than possible if the standard of this season’s Premiership is anything like the last. It shouldn’t take revolutionary improvements to catapult Hibs back into the top six and the fight for European football. Revolutionary improvements are, of course, what the fans crave and deserve, but the reality is that will take more time.

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What no one at Easter Road wants to see, whether it’s in the boardroom or the stands, is a genuine club legend finding himself hamstrung by inadequate options when squads are finalised. Gray has served his dugout apprenticeship and has earned this chance. The very least he deserves is the club giving him the best possible chance to write another fairytale chapter in an already storied Hibs career. Make that happen, and his teams should be realistic contenders to push for Europe, as is the aim every season.

Anything less, though, and it becomes worryingly difficult to predict how far he can go this year.