The first fixture fans scramble to on the calendar, the day Edinburgh comes to a standstill, and now a fork in the road for Hibernian.

There are only eight match days ticked off on a 38-game Scottish Premiership schedule, but David Gray’s side have somehow self-sabotaged their way into a corner ahead of Hearts’ visit to Easter Road. It’s an occasion that needs no added significance, but even before the anger and shock subsided in the Tannadice away end last Saturday, its looming importance could already be felt.

With just a solitary victory from those eight, Hibs are rooted to the bottom of the Scottish Premiership table, and the disquiet is building. Their city rivals sit above them only on goal difference, their own season taking a sharp left turn with the sacking of Steven Naismith, paving the way for Neil Critchley to take his place. He and Gray will be oddly united this weekend in that they both have something, or rather a lot, to prove to their respective fanbases. Critchley afforded himself some early breathing room in debuting with a 4-0 win over St Mirren, but it would be disingenuous to say the scepticism surrounding his appointment across the city has been washed away by one result. A loss will be badly damaging for either man.

In so many ways, Gray’s exalted standing among the Hibs support will never be diminished, but he is now being judged through an entirely different lens, and there’s no sugar-coating the struggle that’s unfolded since August. An inauspicious start carried some mitigation in that Hibs had to play a rampaging Celtic two weeks in succession, but the 2-0 victory over St Johnstone on September 14 was supposed to be a catalyst for improvement. The only thing that springs to mind about it six weeks down the line is that it feels like an awful long time ago. The last fortnight, in particular, has been wearyingly familiar. The manager has changed again, there’s been double-figure turnover in playing personnel, changes in style of play, but the same issues have persisted.

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The single biggest on-pitch factor in Hibs’ eighth-placed finish last season was the concession of late goals, with upwards of 20 points surrendered from winning positions across the campaign. Asked about that problem potentially lingering when Dundee escaped Leith with a late, late draw in August Gray was reluctant to look to the past, and yet two weeks in a row he has been haunted by a long-standing issue. Gray did indirectly address it after losing to Motherwell and Dundee United, lamenting his team’s failure to do the basics. It’s being effective in those fundamentals that insulate you against the self-destruction that has become synonymous with Hibs, and, for reasons which are neverendingly debated, they cannot find a way to do it.

The basics are the very least supporters expect, especially against Hearts, and improving on that front needs to be the starting point for recovery. Where this becomes a conundrum is that there have also been stretches within games where Hibs haven’t looked far away. Even in the jubilation of a dramatic victory at Tannadice, Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin paused long enough afterwards to admit that Hibs were the better side for much of the game. Against Motherwell, Gray’s team were mostly untroubled outwith two momentary lapses in concentration. At Ibrox, they deserved more than the 1-0 defeat they left with. Again, though, this idea that Hibs are only a rub of the green or two away from clicking is dangerous territory, and again reminiscent of last season.

How long can the promising performance elements be sustained when you are being consistently sucker-punched? How long before the psychological implications of that surpass their capacity to build on the good bits? This is the corner Hibs must now fight their way out of, and quickly.

Much of the simmering frustration has been directed above Gray and toward the boardroom, but he has not escaped criticism himself, and any hint of immunity will weaken further if Hearts leave Easter Road with three points on Sunday. There is an aching willingness at all levels of the club for his appointment to succeed, and in turn give suffering supporters something to smile about once more. But after rebuild upon rebuild over the last few years, this was never going to be a quick fix, not least for a man in his first head coach role. The faith Gray showed in Hibs when he joined at the club’s lowest ebb in 2014, and what he gave to it thereafter (and I’m not just talking about a cup-winning goal), deserves to be repaid as he strives to undo long-term problems that were not of his making.

The key to any transitional period, however, is nurturing green shoots of recovery amid the inevitable setbacks. Fans are much more inclined to show patience when they feel that their club is taking forward steps, no matter how staggered. They need something to cling to. Nobody will understand that more than Gray, and it’s why he’ll know how important beating Hearts could be. Even putting the current plight aside, Hibs supporters – another 2500 of whom trekked to Tayside last weekend – have been given too little to shout about in this fixture across recent years. The last victory over their city rivals came in April 2023, and, although there have been a slew of draws, Hibs have only emerged victorious in two of the last 15. It's a dismal record, but as far as changing narratives go, there’s no better place to start. Win on Sunday and everyone from boardroom to dugout will be afforded some much-needed breathing space.

Gray said on Thursday that Hibs were not in the midst of a crisis, and I'd be inclined to agree, at least for now. But this game, while not quite being an absolute must-win for the head coach, is straying into the realms of must-not-lose, as doing so would push the current simmering discontent dangerously close to boiling point.