Hibs vs Dundee: Analysing Premiership draw with StatsBomb

But it was not an annoyance with how Hibs had conducted themselves in their stalemate with Dundee, but that they had not collected the three points their manager felt they had done enough to earn.

There was some mild consternation in the stands at full-time, but the majority of the home support stayed behind to applaud their team’s efforts, with Montgomery again making sure that every one of his players acknowledged the fans at full-time. Post-match, Lewis Stevenson made an eye-catching comment that he’d never seen the Easter Road crowd wait behind in such numbers after a goalless draw.

With almost 600 appearances to his name, that holds plenty of weight. “I think that shows they like what they see,” the 35-year-old insisted. It seems even when dropping points, Hibs continue to pass the eye test with most supporters, but what do the statistics say? Here, we look at the StatsBomb data to tell the story of Hibs' 'frustation'.

The headline figures confirm this was 90 minutes where Hibs largely dominated. Montgomery’s side finished with over 60 per cent possession, and an expected goals (xG) of 2.62 compared to Dundee’s 0.62. This indicates Hibs did create enough chances to emerge victorious, and were let down by their finishing.

Their highest value opportunity of the afternoon (0.48, meaning StatsBomb’s xG model predicts this chance would find the net 48 times out of 100) fell to Paul Hanlon, who was unable to divert the ball over the line following a penalty box scramble. Post-shot xG, the likelihood of a goal after the shot leaves the player’s foot, is even higher in this instance at 0.73.

We can also use the below race chart to map out the flow of the game, and the quality of chances recorded.

It shows how Hibs’ xG accumulated as the match wore on, while Dundee’s remained fairly flat throughout. The bar at the top left predicts that if the match as it were took place 100 times, Hibs would win 83 times out of 100, and lose only four times. That being said, if you note how the xG accumulates only incrementally through the second half shows that while Hibs did dominate, there were a lack of high quality chances created. In other words, Montgomery’s side were knocking on the door, they just could not find that *one big chance* that so often presents itself in games such as this done.

Digging deeper, though, this is also reflected in Hibs’ shot map. As per the key at the bottom of the image, the shapes and colours define the type of shot, what preceded it, and its xG value.

Montgomery’s side recorded an xG per-shot of 0.109, which is only marginally lower than 0.144 posted in the 2-0 win over St Johnstone. What’s noticeable, however, is that Hibs’ xG per-shot from open play was fairly low at only 0.073, while xG from set-pieces was 1.9. This is reflected in the shot map, with Hibs’ highest value efforts coming from corners and free-kick deliveries – 14 of their 23 attempts on goal followed a set-piece situation.

READ MORE: No distractions mean Hibs can focus on Dundee draw positives - Patrick McPartlin

When watching the game from the stands, there was indeed a feeling that there had been a lack of open play opportunities and that Hibs had looked most threatening from dead balls.

A look at Hibs’ passing network shows Montgomery’s build-up approach in action. As per the key at the bottom of the image, the size of circle around a players' name indicates the number of passes they made, and the thickness of line between players shows how often they connected during the game. The colour of circle represents what StatsBomb refers to as 'on ball value' (OBV), which assigns value to each action a player takes on the pitch. By this metric, Lewis Miller was Hibs' most effective performer on the day.

Hibs most frequently advanced the ball via Miller down the right flank, and the pass map shows attempted combinations between the right-back, Martin Boyle and Adam Le Fondre were frequent. The average positions depicted show Le Fondre tended to play in and around Boyle with Dylan Vente remaining more central, and Elie Youan drifting in off the left flank.

Youan was noticeably more effective after switching to the right in the second period. Miller appeared to be under clear instruction to find the Frenchman as often as possible, passing to him 10 times in the second-half alone. Dealing with Youan also presented a problem for Dundee left-back Owen Beck, whose powerful ball-carrying had been a source of relief for the visitors in the first-half, and caused Hibs problems. Despite having a late shot saved well by David Marshall, the Liverpool loanee was more subdued after the interval, and this allowed Hibs to press home their territorial advantage. Youan managed to carry the ball into the box 13 times over the piece, the highest of any player on the pitch, but that Hibs’ open play xG remained so low throughout again points to the team just being unable to carve out significant chances after progressing into good areas.

Defensively, Hibs’ pressure map shows much of the team’s pressing was directed down the flanks, which could suggest Montgomery wants his players to force opponents wide to prevent them breaking through the middle.

With only two players, Jimmy Jeggo and Joe Newell, in central midfield, it is key for Hibs to ensure they are not overwhelmed through the centre of the pitch. Jeggo (21) and Newell (17) recorded the most pressures for the home side over the 90 minutes.