The clock ticks down but the anticipation does nothing but rise, that’s pre-derby day in a nutshell.

These matches are never anything short of fascinating, but there’s a freshness to Saturday’s first meeting of the campaign between Hibs and Hearts. Both clubs are looking to forge ahead in their respective new areas, with Nick Montgomery experiencing this occasion for the first time and Steven Naismith looking to truly arrive as a Hearts manager.

Hibs have not tasted victory at Tynecastle since 2019, a reality that simply needs to change. And yet, amid stuttering results and discontent in the stands, there remains considerable pressure on Hearts to produce a dominant result and performance.

Both have been rattling off midweek fixtures over the past fortnight, but with a full week to prepare for this one, the work on both training grounds will have been intensive. Here, we analyse Hearts’ recent performances with a view to deducing just how Hibs can make them suffer.

Where are Hearts conceding chances?

The loss of Nathaniel Atkinson to injury for the next two months was a blow for Hearts, and they were, for a time, forced to deploy centre-back Toby Sibbick at right-back in the Australian's absence. It is an area opposing teams have since sought to exploit, with St Mirren honing in on it in the Premiership and Kilmarnock following in last month’s Viaplay Cup tie.

Although Hearts eventually emerged victorious at Rugby Park, it took a tactical switch from Naismith to swing the fixture back in his side’s favour (more on that later). For a considerable second-half spell, the level of success Kilmarnock enjoyed from focusing runners in between centre-back and right-back was notable, where a blue and white jersey sought to players out of the back four, creating a gap for a runner – often Kyle Magennis or Daniel Armstrong – to exploit.

In the below example, the ball is fed into Kyle Vassell, who is able to roll Frankie Kent. Magennis' position near the touchline tempts Sibbick forward, creating space down the channel for Armstrong to push into.

Vassell's physicality to hold the ball in, turn and send a pass into the space. There has been concern down Tynecastle way over Rowles’ ability to handle a robust physical threat, with Vassell and St Mirren’s Toyosi Olusanya causing him some strife recently, a consideration which may well bring Christian Doidge into Montgomery’s thoughts.

In another instance shown below, both Sibbick and Kenneth Vargas are drawn to Robbie Deas on the left, allowing him to set the ball for Stuart Findlay to pick out the advancing Magennis, whose exploitation of the space drags Kent into an area centre-backs would rather not go. The play advances and Vassel eventually gets a shot off from the edge of the area which is palmed back into danger, with Hearts narrowly escaping.

They are again exposed down this side for Kilmarnock’s goal, with Peter Haring beaten too easily by Vassell, who then feeds Armstrong to isolate Sibbick one-v-one. Sibbick doesn’t do enough to stop the cross, which is headed in by Brad Lyons.

Kilmarnock will have watched St Mirren give Hearts a torrid time just days earlier, and although the Jambos had started that match with Atkinson, Saints quickly began to target the right flank after Sibbick was introduced. After St Mirren win a second ball in midfield, Sibbick is a split-second too slow to drop off as Keanu Baccus shapes to send a ball into the channel. St Mirren advance into the final third and create a chance from a cross. That ball in between right-back and centre-back is repeated very deliberately later in the half, from which Saints again threaten the Hearts goal.

St Mirren had three goals disallowed in the match, but the one that stood should encourage Hibs. It has been a feature of Nick Montgomery’s side to focus build-up down the right via Lewis Miller, before occasionally looking to switch quickly to Elie Youan and the accompanying full-back – either Jordan Obita or Lewis Stevenson. It’s an age-old attacking strategy: overload one side of the pitch with attacking players to draw defenders over, then look to spring from the opposite side when the time is right.

Here, St Mirren quickly transfer the ball from right to left where Hearts have left acres of space. Their final ball isn’t actually very good but Hearts’ conviction in defence is, shall we say, lacking, and Ryan Strain taps in at the back post.

What formation will Hearts play?

Naismith, however, has sought to address this weakness by switching to a 3-4-1-2. In the second-half against Kilmarnock, it clearly became apparent to the Hearts manager that his team were being targeted down the home side’s left, and he shifted Sibbick into a defensive three alongside Rowles and Kent. To his credit, this helped nullify the threat and re-establish a platform for Hearts to win the tie.

Naismith stuck with this formation in the win over Ross County, and it does provide Hearts with added defensive security. That being said, County barely threatened at all over the 90 minutes, so it remains a setup yet to face a significant test. What it is can do against Hibs’ 4-4-2/4-2-4 is afford Hearts a numerical advantage in midfield.

Hibs faced a somewhat similar shape in the Viaplay Cup win over St Mirren, but Hearts’ approach in-game is likely to be different. In front of an expectant home crowd at Tynecastle, there will be an onus on Naismith’s team to be aggressive, and they could press Hibs much higher than a Saints side which largely opted to sit off and deny the front four space.

Hibs have almost religiously sought to play out from the back and this fixture could be a real test of that. If they are unable to play through the Hearts press, the risks are obvious, but if Montgomery’s side can spring in behind their rivals’ midfield with regularity, it leaves Hearts’ back three open to the Hibs front four bearing down on them.

Defensively, Hibs have been vulnerable to crosses this season (albeit largely pre-Montgomery), and Hearts opting for the 3-4-1-2 could potentially be of benefit in that it’s a shape which lacks natural width. Against County, Hearts attempted only nine crosses in the entire match. It’s such factors which make it difficult to predict whether Naismith will stick with the back three or revert to his previously preferred 4-2-3-1, a shape which could potentially trouble Hibs more in wide areas.

Hibs selection decisions

Much of the Hibs side picks itself at the moment. David Marshall will continue in goal, while Lewis Miller and Will Fish seem certain to start. Jimmy Jeggo and Joe Newell are the midfield go-to, while Youan, Martin Boyle, and Dylan Vente are strong contenders to play in attack.

Decisions then must be made over whether to deploy Paul Hanlon or Rocky Bushiri next to Fish, while it seems 50-50 between Stevenson and Obita at left-back. I’d argue there’s a stronger case for Hanlon over Bushiri – the captain barely put a foot wrong against Dundee and is a better option in the event Hearts attempt to press Hibs when playing out.

That leaves Doidge and Adam Le Fondre vying for the final place in the front four, with a case to be made for both. As discussed earlier, Doidge’s physicality can upset Rowles, but there will also be a need for the midfield two to be supported in defence and during build-up. Le Fondre is most suited to dropping into pockets to play a link role – hugely important in preventing a disconnect between midfield and attack.

READ MORE: How Nick Montgomery has ramped up Hibs set-piece threat

Newell and Jeggo have been excellent of late, but this fixture is likely to present them with a great defensive test. Alex Lowry and Jorge Grant have been the creative sparks for Hearts’ mini-revival, but it would be no surprise to see Naismith opt for a more combative trio comprising three of Cammy Devlin, Neuwenhof, Peter Haring and Beni Banigime.

Rest assured, however, Hibs will have prepared for all eventualities throughout the week, and it’ll be a fascinating revelation when the teamsheets drop on Saturday afternoon.