What can stats tell us about David Marshall's Hibs displays?

It has been a strange season so far for Hibs goalkeepers. The double change in the second leg of the Europa Conference League qualifier against Inter Club d'Escaldes, with Max Boruc making a surprise debut to replace Jojo Wollacott who in turn had stepped up in place of David Marshall who sustained an injury in the warm-up. 

While Marshall's hamstring strain wasn't long-lasting, the injury suffered by summer signing Wollacott kept him sidelined until the weekend's trip to Ibrox, when he returned to the matchday squad. But the former Charlton man's setback had a knock-on effect for youth prospect Murray Johnson, whose season-long loan at Queen of the South was cut short after one game (and one clean sheet) in a League Cup group win against Elgin City as Hibs recalled him for third 'keeper duties with Max Boruc bumped up to No.2. The highly-regarded 18-year-old, who will surely be considered for a second loan spell come the January transfer window, really needs to be playing regularly to aid his development.

Boruc has twice come on as a sub to replace Marshall after in-game injuries, in the 3-2 defeat by Livingston and the 2-2 draw with Hearts at Tynecastle. Despite those injuries, Marshall's gametime so far mirrors the league average. But large swathes of the Easter Road side's fanbase remain unconvinced by the experienced shot-stopper's abilities, with some believing his best days to be behind him.

A difficult first season? 

When Marshall signed for Hibs he replaced Matt Macey, who had also struggled to win over the fans since taking over the gloves from the virtually universally-beloved Ofir Marciano. The Englishman arrived initially on loan from Arsenal, where he had trained alongside goalkeepers such as Petr Cech, Bernd Leno, and Emi Martínez, with the knowledge that Marciano's then-unresolved future could pave the way for him to nail down the No.1 spot in the Capital. He duly did so, playing 32 league games, with Kevin Dąbrowski starting the other six. Macey was solid if unspectacular; keeping 11 clean sheets and conceding 37 goals in his league appearances.

In Marshall's debut season he played in all 38 Premiership matches, keeping 11 clean sheets and conceding 59 goals. From early on his distribution looked to be a step above Marciano and Macey and in this day and age, with 'keepers often called upon to act like an additional defender at times and be just as comfortable with the ball at their feet as they are keeping it out of the net, the initial signs were promising.

But there were a number of high-profile mistakes, such as fumbling James Forrest's effort into the net in the 6-1 drubbing at Celtic Park in October 2022, or letting James Tavernier's free kick beat him at the near post in Rangers' 3-1 victory at Easter Road in May this year and not dealing with Tavernier's deflected effort allowing Todd Cantwell a straightforward goal in the same game. That game came just weeks after he'd let Stevie May’s bicycle kick squirm under him in a 1-1 draw at St Johnstone. There were other instances, like the penalty he gave away in a 3-1 home defeat by Motherwell which somehow wriggled through his grasp and over the line. There were times his positioning was called into question as well.

New season, new start?

His unfortunate role in gifting Inter Club d'Escaldes their second goal in the first leg of the Europa Conference League encounter in Andorra thrust him back into the spotlight. But there have also been top-drawer saves; most notably one during the 2-0 victory at Aberdeen in early September and another in Nick Montgomery's first home game in charge against St Johnstone where he denied Andy Considine what looked like a certain goal. Last season there was a double penalty-save against Livingston, and even in a 3-1 defeat at Parkhead in March he somehow denied Kyogo Furuhashi from point-blank range with an instinctive stop. Marshall still has the ability to produce impressive saves. The problem is that there aren't enough of them. 

What do the stats tell us?

Data collected by StatsBomb allows us to assess how Marshall has performed overall since arriving at Easter Road. During the 2022/23 campaign Hibs conceded 49 non-penalty goals, and just over 42 expected goals. When we limit the data to include just shots on target - removing 158 off-targets efforts - they conceded 49 non-penalty goals and expected goals of just over 28. Every goalkeeper will allow more goals than expected goals from shots on target, so this isn't a surprising figure.

StatsBomb aims to drill down into metrics enabling us to accurately judge a goalkeeper by using a post-shot xG model to gauge the accuracy of the value of shots a 'keeper faces, which produces a very different set of results. 

Using this model we can see that the 49 non-penalty goals Marshall conceded last season, rather than coming from 28.06 expected goals, actually came from slightly over 40 expected goals.

What Marshall's 'shots faced' map from his first campaign in the Capital shows is that he conceded just over eight goals more than the average goalkeeper - or just under eight goals, when penalties are included. This gives him a goals saved above average (GSAA) score of -8.35. In layman's terms, he conceded far more goals than he should have. 

The only goalkeeper from the 2022/23 campaign to have a lower goals saved above average (GSAA) percentage was Allan McGregor, who had a ranking of -8.9, although the Rangers custodian conceded nearly half the amount of goals as Marshall (25).

Only Ross Laidlaw at Ross County conceded more league goals than Marshall over the course of the season (52). The goalkeeper comparison graph below, including goalkeepers who played at least 600 minutes of Premiership football last season, shows how each shot-stopper fared. 

Save for a purple patch early in 2023 that coincided with Hibs' upturn in form following the January transfer window, Marshall has underperformed since arriving at Easter Road. But there are signs that things might improve this season.

So far this campaign he has a GSAA of -1.50, nudging up to 1.62 when including penalties. Hibs have conceded 16 goals from 124 shots, with an expected goals against figure of 9.80. When we look at just shots on target the expected goals against figure falls to 6.37. However, Boruc has conceded two of that tally and two of the goals Marshall allowed were own goals, which StatsBomb omits from the data, giving him a goals-against total of 12; 11 goals from open play and one penalty. 

It is a small sample size at the moment, but one potential ray of light could be that Marshall's total post-shot xG (omitting Mark O'Hara's spot-kick on the opening day of the season) sits at 9.50, giving him a GSAA of -1.50. So while he is still underperforming, and in fact is currently bottom in terms of GSAA for all goalkeepers to have played at least 600 Scottish Premiership minutes so far this season, the arrival of Montgomery and goalie coaching Miguel Miranda has led to an improvement from Marshall, even if it's just of the 'not quite as poor' variety. 

To put it in context, after the first three games of the season Marshall's shot-stopping percentage was -20 (the current league average is 1 per 90 minutes, for reference). In the five games since Montgomery and Miranda arrived, his shot-stopping percentage has increased to -3.

Other stats have also improved to the extent that he is not too far from matching the league averages in a number of key metrics, which would represent a marked improvement. Incidentally, his GK Aggressive Distance score - how active Marshall is at moving off his line to make clearances, interceptions, tackles, and ball recoveries - has decreased slightly, from just over 22 actions per game to just over 20. This could be a result of the defence looking a lot more cohesive under Montgomery.

One possible metric that could improve even further with the help of the outfield players is his positive outcome score. From 1.08 per 90 during the first three league games, it has improved to 1.37 per 90 during Montgomery's tenure, although it remains a good bit below the league average of 1.54. A positive outcome is recorded when any of the following events happen within 20 seconds of a goalkeeper's pass: free kicks earned in the attacking half, corner kicks earned, shots attempted, and penalties earned. 

It remains to be seen how Marshall will fare over the course of the season, and the effect Miranda can have. The Portuguese coach, who joined Hibs as part of Montgomery's staff, worked with Ederson and Jan Oblak during their formative years at Benfica, and was credited with improving Danny Vukovic, 38, during the 2022/23 campaign at Mariners and the hope will be that he can keep nudging Marshall's statistics in the right direction. 

In an interview with ALeagues.com earlier this year, Miranda said: "Now, 80 per cent of the actions of the goalkeeper are with the feet. Even with Vuka, we had that conversation. We are a team that wants to build up a lot. So we want the goalkeeper to touch a lot of times with the foot. I'm very happy with Vuka, he is full of confidence, playing out all the time. So we could not be more proud of what he's doing now. He's doing amazing for us, since the beginning of the season but in the last games even better."

Miranda's work with a goalkeeper of a similar vintage may bode well for Marshall and Hibs. It is early days still, and a long old season, but Miranda is highly respected in the footballing world - and as Lewis Stevenson keeps saying, you don't stop learning in football just because you get older. 

With Wollacott fit again, Marshall has another challenge on his hands for the No.1 spot. It feels too early for the Ghanaian international to be thrust into the starting line-up given his period of time on the sidelines and while he got a much-needed 90 minutes under his belt in Monday's bounce game against Sunderland, barring injury, the gloves would appear to be Marshall's for the foreseeable. 

It will be interesting to gauge whether increased time with Miranda helps to bring out a bit more from Marshall, despite the goalie being in the twilight of his career. Montgomery has spoken highly of the former Scotland internationalist and his role in the team and broadly speaking the 38-year-old has looked comfortable playing the new manager's preferred style but there were times against Rangers when his erratic passing put Hibs under pressure - perhaps a reflection of the opposition. There are certain factors he cannot control - his age and reaction times the two most obvious and crucial - but we can't rule out the prospect of Miranda coaxing a little bit more out of Marshall to benefit the team and the individual.