Hibs overhaul so far - analysing trends in search of progress

The manager has attempted to overhaul the team's style of play, and banish the myriad issues which, ultimately, cost Lee Johnson his job. Results have been up and down, with a strong start followed by a run of frustrating outcomes that included a 4-0 drubbing at Rangers, and conceding late equalisers to the likes of Ross County and St Mirren.

Such an overhaul is always going to take time, but we can use StatsBomb data to pry into which way key performance metrics are moving. The results are mixed, with clear improvements in some areas, and others which have, according to the data, largely remained the same.

Expected goals (xG)

The term 'expected goals' still elicits a 'red rag to a bull' response from some quarters of football fandom but it is a metric which suffers from a perception problem more than anything else. Simply a carefully curated measure of the quality of chances a team is creating, it can offer clues and insight into whether a team's results are reflective of their overall attacking play.

In this instance, the above graphic shows that Hibs have been on an upward trajectory in fashioning good quality opportunities since Montgomery's arrival. A slight dip is noticeable for matches against Rangers and Celtic, but the important point to grasp here is the overall trend, which smooths out data points which can be considered outliers, as matches against Glasgow's big two generally are.  Hovering around 1.09 xG per-game, though, actually puts Hibs slightly below the league average of 1.16, and is something the coaching staff will be eager to see rise further. 

The purple line represents Hibs' xG conceded - the amount of quality chances given away to opposition - and in this case, the downward trend is encouraging. As ever, though, context is important, and Hibs' issue of late has not necessarily been the overall volume of goals conceded, but when. A reduction in xG conceded is to be welcomed, but the most important outcome - results - has been hampered by giving up advantageous positions. The hope will be that Saturday's 1-0 win over Kilmarnock, seen out despite a late flurry from the opposition, will be the psychological catalyst that ends a recent tendency to concede late goals.

A look at Hibs' xG conceded over 90 minutes shows that, on average, they are roughly in line with the rest of the Premiership, and actually better than the likes of Aberdeen and St Mirren, in giving up quality chances in the latter stage of matches, which suggests the issue is not down to collective defensive disorganisation late in games.

Passing

Overall, Hibs are averaging more passes per-game under Montgomery. However, this isn't a particularly useful statistic in isolation, given it tells us nothing about what players are actually doing with those passes. At Central Coast Mariners, Montgomery, as with most attack-minded managers, wanted his players to have as many touches in the opposition box as possible, and we can see this is something he has transferred to Hibs, albeit the rise is fairly minor.

In terms of what StatsBomb defines as a 'deep completion' - which is simply a technical term for passes completed within 20 yards of the opponent's goal - Hibs have improved in this area, as demonstrated below. It points to a team spending more time in and around the final third, but again it remains a work in progress.

Defending

The trends around Hibs' defensive play are a little more difficult to assess. The headline numbers show that since Montgomery took over, they are pressing slightly less often, engaging opponents roughly the same distance from their own goal, and that the opposition are completing more passes before Hibs make a defensive action. However, this is caveated by the fact that when a team has more of the ball, they are not going to rack up defensive stats as often. 

We previously noted how Hibs were giving up a high number of shots under Montgomery, and that is borne out in the overview of defensive metrics below. However, it's interesting to note that Montgomery's side are among the best in the division for denying opponents a 'clear' shot - defined as an attempt where only the goalkeeper stands between the shooter and the goal.

This is backed up by the strong 'xG per shot conceded' metric, which shows Hibs are, in general, not giving up clear-cut chances to other teams with worrying regularity. Montgomery's side have also seemingly improved when defending set-pieces, being among the Premiership's strongest performers for denying chances from dead ball situations.

Conclusion

What we can see in the numbers being racked up is that Hibs remain a team very much in transition. Matches against the likes of Celtic and Rangers can skew the picture at times, but it is still possible to conclude that Montgomery's side are moving in a positive direction in some important areas.

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At this stage of his tenure, they were never going to be the finished article, and injuries have not been particularly kind of late, either. But the scope for continued improvement is clear, as is the fact that there are some things the numbers cannot tell you. It's hard to argue Montgomery has not implemented a clear style, and it is undeniable that some players have improved under his leadership.

Overall, there are signs of progress, but not quite enough yet to make a definitive judgement on where this team is heading long-term.