Should Hibs consider a January loan move for Kevin van Veen?

Smoke mirrors, innuendo, and ambiguity are the order of the day when transfer season lands, but there was nothing ambiguous about an eye-catching Kevin van Veen issue which surfaced on Tuesday.

Speaking to the Scottish Sun, the former Motherwell striker issued the classic 'come and get me plea' to Premiership clubs, detailing how he's fallen out with Groningen manager Dick Lukkien. The ever-colourful Dutchman admitted he crossed a line in how he spoke to his boss, and it seems the prospect of reconciliation is remote.

For that reason, and that his partner and newborn baby still reside in Glasgow, Van Veen is open to the prospect of a return to Scotland, insisting he'd consider a return to Fir Park while claiming Rangers had previously registered their interest in him. Given he scored 29 goals in all competitions in 2022/23, there will be several top-flight clubs asking themselves the question: could he do a job for us?

Here, we look at whether the 32-year-old should be of interest to Hibs.

What do the numbers say?

29 goals in 44 appearances for a side that, at one point, appeared caught in a death spiral towards relegation is an incredibly impressive return. Motherwell eventually stabilised following the arrival of Stuart Kettlewell in the dugout, but it's no exaggeration that Van Veen's goals kept the Fir Park side clear of even greater trouble.

He also registered two assists, and made 38 key passes (passes leading to a shot) across the campaign. For context, that key pass number is very comparable to his fellow Player of the Year nominees, such as Reo Hatate (44), Callum McGregor (42), and Malik Tillman (45). It shows Van Veen was more than just a goalscorer, he was a key creative influence for Motherwell, too.

That being said, it was in front of goal where he most obviously impressive.

25 of Van Veen's goals came in the Premiership, from an expected goals (xG) of 19. That suggests the Dutchman quite significantly overperformed his xG, emphasising just how good his 2022/23 form really was. It's often then posited that a striker's goal return will regress towards his xG, but a closer look at Van Veen's goals hint at his reliability as a finisher.

The graphic below maps every shot taken by Van Veen across an axis showing the xG of each effort. If we look towards the right of the chart, it shows that Van Veen very rarely missed a high xG opportunity. This singles him out as a highly reliable finisher - basically, if you create good chances for him, he will put them away more often than not.

His goals were not punctuated by a significant amount of low probability opportunities, which is a scenario in which you might then consider that such a streak would taper off eventually. It's never as simple as declaring that Hibs have more of the ball/create more chances than Motherwell, so Van Veen would logically rack up even greater goal numbers, but there's strong evidence that if you high xG opportunities, Van Veen will find the net.

Given his age and attributes, it's hardly a surprise to discover that Van Veen is not a pressing machine, but he still average around 11 pressures per-90 last season, made 16 interceptions and blocked 43 passes. He may give off that languid, 'doing things at his own pace' impression, but he was a willing worker in a team that struggled for long periods of the season.

Age concerns, a question of necessity?

At 32, Van Veen is moving towards the latter stages of his career, and what could be of concern for Hibs is that the playing squad is already on the 'ageing' side, especially in the striking positions. Adam Le Fondre will be 37 in a few days' time, Christian Doidge is 31, and even Martin Boyle will turn 31 before the end of the season.

In the goalless draw against Dundee, Montgomery fielded a side with an average of over 30. The youngest XI of the season (around 25) came in the midweek visit to St Mirren earlier this month, with the figure given a more flattering look with the inclusion of 16-year-old Rory Whittaker.

Hibs could be understandably wary of adding any more players who have already passed their 30th birthday. A balance between youth and experience is essential, of course, but it's arguable the club need to redress it back towards the former.

That being said, if Le Fondre's injury absence extends any longer than Montgomery expects it to (late December/early January is the current timeframe), then seeking cover could enter the manager's thoughts. It's all ifs and buts at the moment, Hibs could do much worse than Van Veen as a short-term fix, if that were to be the scenario.

READ MORE: Could Hibs have a safe standing section by next summer?

Even a scoring rate not too significantly lower than that of last term would be of real value to Nick Montgomery, especially in a system which requires rotation of forwards. The nagging fear, though, would be that last season was a one-off.

Van Veen had a decent scoring record in the Netherlands from 2013 to 2015, albeit in the lowest tiers of domestic competition. His form in England was mixed, but must be caveated by the fact he played for some poor sides who, in general, did not score many goals at all. Before he aimed some choice words at his Groningen manager, Van Veen was averaging a goal every other game in the Dutch second tier, a very decent return which suggests the scoring touch of 2022/23 has not deserted him.

Will it be enough to attract admiring glances from Easter Road? Would the pros outweigh the cons, or should Hibs be focusing on other areas of the pitch? The return of Elias Melkersen to Easter Road could well be the deciding factor here, with Montgomery indicating the 20-year-old has a part to play in the remainder of the season.

If the scope to spend is as limited as the manager has indicated, you do feel that having a forward - and a young, promising one, at that - walking back through the door at no additional cost would be enough to turn recruitment focus towards other areas of the pitch.