How Hibs can challenge Celtic: Set-plays and competitiveness

But drilling down into the statistics offers an insight into how Hibs might progress from an 'ugly' win, and what we learned about the team going forward - particularly into Wednesday night's game against Celtic. 

Marshall's masterclass

David Marshall probably had his best game in a Hibs shirt against Aberdeen, picking up the man of the match and recording a clean sheet and making some important saves along the way. Not bad for a player who many thought might be finished after some of his performances earlier this season, following on from the 22/23 campaign, in which the numbers showed he conceded far more goals than he should have. 

Not only is the former Scotland internationalist improving, he has turned things around to the extent that on current form, he is statistically the third-best 'keeper in the league in terms of his goals saved above average percentage (GSAA). This effectively measures how many shots a goalie actually saves, compared to how many he is expected to save (post-shot xG). At the moment, Marshall has a GSAA of 1.77 (2.41 when penalties are included). His GSAA for last season was -8.35, as we told in this piece from late October. 

The four 'keepers to have conceded fewer goals than Marshall so far this season are Jack Butland at Rangers (seven); Celtic's Joe Hart (eight), Zander Clark of Hearts (ten) and Kilmarnock No.1 Will Dennis (11). These numbers will obviously chop and change as the season wears on but it is not only a promising sign on its own, it is essentially proof that Easter Road goalkeeping coach Miguel Miranda is already getting more out of the veteran gloveman. 

Currently he ranks third in terms of save percentage, with just Jack Butland (80%) and Will Dennis (77%) ahead of the Hibs custodian's 75%. In layman's terms, Marshall saves around three-quarters of all shots he faces each game. His expected save percentage, or xSv% is 72%, illustrating how valuable he has been to Hibs in the past few matches. It should also be pointed out that as late as October 25 Marshall was rock bottom of the GSAA table for all goalkeepers to have played at least 600 minutes of cinch Premiership football and while the arrival of Nick Montgomery and Miranda coincided with an upturn in his performances, the last five weeks or so have really demonstrated how hard he has worked to rediscover the sort of form that had the majority of Hibs fans significantly excited by his signing. He will need to be in fine form in midweek at his former employers but there's good reason to believe he can put in another commanding display at the back.

Set-piece focus

Two months ago we carried a piece looking at Hibs' increasing threat from set-pieces. The catalyst for the article was a whopping 14 shots out of 23 in the goalless draw with Dundee arriving from dead-ball situations - more than 50 per cent of their total opportunities during the match. 

We have seen training-ground corner routines, and two goals in two matches coming directly from corners; Lewis Miller's winner against Dundee at Dens Park from Joe Newell's corner, and Will Fish's goal from Martin Boyle's corner against Aberdeen. 

Broadly speaking Montgomery has Boyle delivering in-swingers from the left, and Newell doing likewise from the right. Against Dundee in September, Hibs executed a number of plays as part of their corner routines, designed to create as much space as possible in the six-yard box. 

Hibs' highest-value chance of the game against Aberdeen in terms of xG was, unsurprisingly, Dylan Vente's opener (0.96xG). But the second and third-highest value chances? Fish's headed second (0.15) and Rocky Bushiri's blocked attempt in the first half (0.14). 

What's particularly notable is that both Bushiri's first-half attempt, and Fish's goal, are from the exact same spot in the six-yard box, and both came from corners from the left. Also worth pointing out is that Bushiri headed the ball narrowly wide from a Newell free kick out on the left from the same position. 

Fish had two attempts during the game; one the goal and the other shortly before the interval coming from... a deep Newell free kick on the left side. What was interesting about this set-play was that Bushiri charged into the box at the last minute, potentially causing confusion in the Aberdeen defence and allowing Fish an unchallenged header that wasn't too far off target. In the picture below you can see Bushiri and Fish moving to attack the ball at the back post after it has left Newell's foot. 

Hibs scored nine goals originating from corners last season and have already scored four goals this year - one under Lee Johnson (Josh Campbell against Livingston at Easter Road in the 3-2 defeat), one under interim boss David Gray (Christian Doidge's header against Aberdeen at Pittodrie), and then Miller's winner against Dundee and Fish's goal against the Dons under Montgomery.

Cornering the market going forward

It's likely we'll see more attempts from Hibs originating from corners. We've already witnessed a clear shift to carefully constructed set-pieces with a view to taking advantage of the situation. And when you consider how many set-piece chances Hibs have against Celtic and Rangers - of last season's nine set-play goals, two came against Rangers from corners - it makes perfect sense to try to bump up the number of opportunities for goals. 

Celtic have conceded three goals that originated from corners so far this season - Jordan White for Ross County back in August, Jon Obika's equaliser for Motherwell in late November, and Diallang Jaiyesimi for St Johnstone at the weekend. In their 15 league matches they have given up 21 attempts on goal originating from corners, and 38 in total from any set-piece situation - three coming in the goalless draw at Easter Road in late October. However, just the three goals have been conceded.

Last season under Ange Postecoglou, Celtic gave up 33 shots on goal originating from corners, with three goals scored - two of them by centre-halves (Alex Iacovitti for Ross County, and John Souttar for Rangers). So Celtic are giving up far more set-piece opportunities this season, of which Hibs will hope to take advantage on Wednesday night. 

But as well as getting their set-pieces, particularly corners, as spot-on as they can they will need Marshall to be as impervious as he was against the Dons. 

"It’s very hard but you only have to look at Leicester in the Premier League, no-one really expected them to [win it in 2016]," Montgomery told the Press Association this week. 

"Every club in every league will see that as an inspirational story. Is it sustainable? No, it’s hard to be sustainable because look at where Leicester are now but that’s a one-off example. You can only try to achieve the best positions every season. It’s not easy to compete against the two giants of the division, but that’s something every team aspires to do.

“I’m not saying we can compete on any level with them financially; budget-wise that’s never going to happen. What we can do is make sure we have a team competitive enough to make sure we’re competing in every game. Everybody knows there are two massive teams in the league but you want to be up there challenging,” he added.

“We want to become a club with an identity, a club that develops players, one which can sell players to the biggest leagues in the world and reinvest back into the academy and the foundations. We want to keep growing the fanbase and the community and give everyone a club to be proud of."

Celtic Park is never an easy place to go but there are signs that Hibs can go there this week and, at the very least, be competitive.