Why the key to Hibs win at Saints lies in fast transitions

Four wins from their last five will have Nick Montgomery's side sliding into McDiarmid Park on the crest of a wave, but another hard graft for three points surely awaits in the form of a solidified St Johnstone. Even in the formative weeks of the season, Saints looked destined for the drop under Steven MacLean, unable to build any sort of momentum, and it came as little surprise when he was shown the door in November.

A familiar foe in Craig Levein has stepped into the dugout, and has immediately fortified a floundering side, so much so that their fate come May no longer feels so certain. A 2-0 Hibs victory in the reverse fixture at Easter Road in September was the first of Montgomery's tenure, and it's a scoreline he would bite your hand off for on Saturday.

So, what can Hibs expect at McDiarmid?

Overview

Levein has avoided defeat in four of his six matches so far, losing only at home to Celtic and away at Hearts. He has won won two of those, a decent upturn considering they had not registered a single league victory until Alex Cleland took charge for a single game as caretaker after MacLean's exit.

Could it be considered a mere new manager bounce? It's not entirely clear just yet, but the evidence is mounting that Levein might be able to get a better tune more consistently out of a squad that seemed badly lacking in all departments not so long ago.

Where they were regularly going down with a whimper under MacLean, the very least Levein has managed is ensuring they have been competitive for 90 minutes every week - even Celtic faced a long, hard slog to shake them off, the 3-1 scoreline not entirely reflective of how difficult the champions found their afternoon.

It's clear they are no longer pushovers.

Levein has established a back five, with Ryan McGowan, Liam Gordon and Luke Robinson preferred at its heart over the last two games. James Brown and Tony Gallacher have operated as wing-backs.

In midfield, Daniel Phillips is first pick, with either Max Kucheravyi or Matt Smith alongside him. Graham Carey is the primary creative outlet, with Dalliang Jaiyesimie and Chris Kane a likely pairing in attack.

Style of play

Levein's first port of call was making Saints harder to beat, and the permanent switch to a back five - formations changed too frequently under MacLean - has seemingly reaped rewards. The trendline below shows that their xG conceded has dropped in recent weeks, with the first vertical blue line denoting Cleland's one game, and the second marking where Levein took over.

In their last fixture, Saints came within a whisker of a 1-0 victory at Fir Park, taking a second-half lead through Bevis Mugabi's own goal, and largely frustrating Motherwell until a stoppage time Mika Biereth equaliser. The home side had almost 60 per cent possession, with Saints content to sit off and challenge their opponents to break down their 5-3-2 shape, at times having as many as six players across their defensive line.

Saints weren't fussed by Motherwell working the ball into wide areas, with the hosts having umpteen (yes, that is the official statistical term) crosses cleared, and just as many attacks snuffed out by their visitors' compactness - note how many players they get around the ball below as Motherwell attempt to play through, plus the compactness of their back five (the right-wing back is just out of shot)

Clearly, their aim was to leave Motherwell with as little space to play as possible once they reached the final third, and this only ramped up after they took the lead. It was a highly committed display from Levein's side, epitomised by their willingness to defend their box with numbers. In the example below, Motherwell are searching a leveller, but even as they advance to the edge of Saints' box, find themselves outnumbered 8-3 in the area.

Such a defensive approach does not come without risks, however, the primary pitfall being that inviting such sustained pressure is bound to result in opportunities conceded. Motherwell have an in-form, clinical striker in Biereth, and his brilliant late header denied Saints three points.

How can Hibs break them down?

Even champions Celtic found Saints immensely difficult to break down for long periods, and it took two goals of the highest quality from Callum McGregor and Matt O'Riley to turn them over, only for Levein's side to come within a whisker of snatching an equaliser at the very end before James Forrest broke away to clinch victory.

READ MORE: Every word from Nick Montgomery Hibs Q&A ahead of St Johnstone

Hibs will likely be presented with a mass of blue shirts for much of Saturday's game, and the key to victory could, as it does so often in the modern game, lie in being quick and decisive when Saints' shape is not set. In the first-half last week, Motherwell had opportunities to cut through Levein's team in transition, opportunities that they did not capitalise on enough.

In the example below, Saints give up possession on the right, and it all takes is one pass for Motherwell to spring into the final third. Moments later, though, the final pass is lacking and Saints get off the hook.

In the next example below, Motherwell again recover possession in midfield, and there's space in behind which Biereth makes a move to exploit. The opportunity to thread a pass down the side is there, but Motherwell don't take it, instead opting to recycle possession harmless in midfield, and Saints are able to recover and close the gaps.

Given the weekend fixture is on Saints' home patch, you would perhaps a higher degree of aggression in their approach, raising the possibility that these gaps in transition will be there for Hibs, if they are ruthless enough to exploit them.