'Mixed emotions' was the verdict from David Gray at Ibrox, and it's easy to see why.
The Hibs head coach said 'everything we talked about before the game, generally happened'. His setup was a slightly more pragmatic version of the 4231 which had been deployed in recent games, swapping out Rudi Molotnikov for Josh Campbell, Élie Youan for Chris Cadden, and Nicky Cadden for Junior Hoilett, who made his first start since joining in the summer. In the end, Gray's side were undone by a moment of brilliance from Tom Lawrence, the Welshman's unstoppable strike into the top corner proving enough for Rangers to claim a narrow victory.
Mykola Kukharevych had a first-half penalty saved by Jack Butland, and Hibs saw further opportunities for Hoilett, Kwon Hyeok-kyu, who had a handful of attempts, and debutant Dwight Gayle go begging. It was a largely effective defensive performance that just lacked the final touch at crucial times. The spot-kick was a huge moment, and an equaliser for Hibs just before the interval could feasibly have turned an already anxious Ibrox fully against the off-colour hosts.
Among the top priorities when Gray took over from Nick Montgomery during the summer was making Hibs harder to beat. Gray said as much himself. Soft goals and sudden, often late, collapses were the prevailing theme of last season, and no long-term rebuild would get off the ground without addressing those issues. Early Premiership performances this term brought a sense of deja-vu - Hibs folded on the opening day against St Mirren, went down meekly to Celtic, and threw away late leads against Kilmarnock and Dundee to draw games they probably should have won.
But the last few weeks, starting with what was a mostly robust display at Rugby Park, have been dotted with signs of tentative promise. Hibs haven't quite clicked yet as an attacking force, but Gray has not yet been able to deploy a settled forward line, and has been hampered by Kieron Bowie's long-term hamstring injury. There are indications, however, that he is setting a sustainable foundation.
Sensible setup at Ibrox
There was some suggestion pre-match that Hibs would switch to a back five, with Lewis Miller dropping in as a centre-back, Chris Cadden going to right wing-back, Campbell completing a midfield three with Kwon and Nectar Triantis, and Hoilett playing off Kukharevych. But the head coach decided not to deviate his shape too much from recent games, instead picking players who would guarantee intensity and discipline within it.
Miller played as an orthodox right-back, with Cadden pushing into right midfield, Hoilett going to the left, and Campbell supporting Kukharevych. It was sensible. Hibs weren't overly defensive, but their shape was well-drilled and the players worked tirelessly to execute it. That work began with the front two, who put in a selfless shift to funnel Rangers into the areas Hibs wanted them to go.
They were content to allow uncontested possession to centre-backs John Souttar and Robin Propper, with Campbell and Kukharevych focusing on stopping the home side building through the middle of the pitch. As you can see below, if one of the two stepped out to a centre-back, the other would tuck in to stop Rangers finding Connor Barron - note how Campbell signals for Kukharevych to tuck in as he begins to advance towards Souttar.
Although it will frustrate Gray that it was Lawrence who eventually got Rangers' goal, his team did a fine job of stopping passes into him and Raskin. One pass taking out the entire Hibs midfield was a constant occurrence in the defeat to Celtic at Easter Road, but the setup and execution here stopped that happening with any regularity.
Rangers were disjointed, yes, and much was made of them lacking zip thanks to midweek exertions in Europe, but Hibs' shape was also a significant contributing factor. In the example below, McCausland has gone walkabout on the opposite side to try and disrupt the visitors, with Lawrence dropping out to the left. The result, though, is that no one (except the referee) fills that central pocket that Lawrence has vacated simply to get a touch of the ball, and he's forced to play backward again.
A slightly scrappy exchange follows as Lawrence attempts to combine towards Hibs' left, eventually tangling with Miller who goes down a little easily. Lawrence continues his run through, and Miller can't get back up in time to block McCausland's pass through to the goalscorer, who shifts inside and curls into the far top corner. It's a few split-second moments and, as Gray put it, a 'worldy' of a finish that undoes Hibs.
Their defensive approach, though, was still largely effective.
The StatsBomb passing network below backs up the examples we saw above. It displays the average positions where Rangers players picked up the ball. The larger the circle around each name, the higher the number of passes. It shows a significant degree of benign possession for Propper and Souttar, McCausland being forced back to the extent his circle overlaps with Jefte, low levels of involvement for Lawrence and Raskin, as well as Rangers' entire right-hand side.
Clinical edge missing
"You can't have five, six, seven chances to score a goal at times," Gray said after the game. "You might only get one in games like this, so we’re definitely learning from every game that you play in."
Hibs had more than one on this occasion. Based on expected goals [xG] (Rangers 1.28, Hibs 1.97), StatsBomb gave Hibs a 54% chance of winning this match, and that extended spell they enjoyed through the second-half bears out in the race chart below. It shows how xG accumulated over time, so it's little wonder Hibs left Ibrox feeling as they should have taken a point, at least.
That xG was, of course, significantly boosted by the penalty opportunity, but Hibs' shot map below also strengthens the feeling they created enough to trouble the scoresheet. Converting those chances into goals is the obvious next step in matches like this, where profligacy is often punished.
Reasons to be positive
Applying too much polish to a defeat would be excessive, but there are genuine reasons for Hibs to take heart from this display. For the most part, it was defensively sound, there was a real intensity throughout the team, and they did create some chances.
The backline appears to have found cohesion, Kwon and Triantis pair well in midfield, and if that extrapolates to the front line as players like Hoilett and Gayle bed in, Martin Boyle returns, and Elie Youan finds some rhythm, then Hibs should be a threat to most teams.
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What's crucial now, though, is building on these positives. Too often last season, Hibs showed signs of promise one week, then failed to carry that into any sort of consistency. Motherwell at home on Saturday is an entirely different test, and it's time for Hibs to start putting more points on the board.
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