After a narrow yet encouraging defeat to Rangers, David Gray must prepare his Hibernian squad for the visit of an in-form Motherwell at Easter Road on Saturday in the Scottish Premiership.
The teams are yet to meet this season, though Gray’s side stormed to a 3-0 victory in a bottom-six clash in May, courtesy of a Martin Boyle brace and a goal from loanee Myziane Maolida. The performance helped Gray earn the job on a permanent basis, though the game was largely overshadowed by emotional goodbyes to long-serving club legends Paul Hanlon and Lewis Stevenson.
Stuart Kettlewell’s Steelmen currently sit fourth after a strong start that has also taken them to Hampden Park for the Premier Sports Cup semi-finals, whilst Hibs are desperate to claim their second league victory of the campaign.
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With the aid of our partners at Statsbomb, we put Motherwell under the microscope...
Overview
The Fir Park side arrive in Leith on blistering form with six wins in their last seven games in all competitions. Last time out, Motherwell secured a 2-1 win over St Mirren, thanks to a brace from exciting youngster Lennon Miller, though they were hampered by defender Dan Casey’s red card early in the second half.
Miller’s form has dominated discussions about the Lanarkshire club in recent months, with the midfielder continuing to establish himself as a key player for Kettlewell’s side and raising his notoriety across the wider world of Scottish football.
There’s been a lot of turnover for the Steelmen over the transfer window, with no less than 16 signings including Portuguese wide man Jair Tavares on loan from the Hibees.
The sale of Canadian hitman Theo Bair to Auxerre in Ligue 1 funded the summer splurge, but it remains to be seen who will fill the boots of a man who bagged 15 goals and six assists in the Premiership in 2023/24.
In the previous campaign the two sides couldn’t be split head-to-head with one win and two draws each, though Hibs finished three points higher in the final table.
Motherwell have lined up in a variation of a 343 or 352 in all their league matches so far, typically with a back-three of Liam Gordon, Dan Casey and ex-Hibee Paul McGinn. Casey will be a big loss for a side with the fourth-best defensive record in the Premiership, and it’s most likely that either Kofi Balmer or Shane Blaney will step in.
The wingbacks are all but certain to be academy graduate Ewan Wilson and former Scotland defender Stephen O’Donnell, whilst Macedonian midfielder Davor Zdravkoski and familiar foe Andy Halliday are likely to start in the midfield.
If Kettlewell opts for a midfield trio, Zdravkoski will drop into the six and Miller will join the three. However, should it be a 3-4-3, the latter will be deployed in an advanced midfield or wide role. Zach Robinson has typically been the first-choice striker and could be partnered with Moses Ebiye in a two, or flanked by Miller and Tawanda Maswanhise who offer significant danger in one-on-one scenarios.
How do they play?
Motherwell use a direct approach, shown by having less possession in all but one of their league games so far - the opening-day draw with Ross County. They also rank as low as tenth in open-play passes. They have, however, used that possession well, and only left two games with a lower xG (expected goals) than their opponents, one of which was at Ibrox against Rangers and the other with ten men against St Mirren.
Defensively, the Fir Park side sit off their opponents and soak up pressure, allowing more passes per defensive action (PPDA) than any other team.
Robinson is often supported by an attacking midfielder or forward playing close to him, whilst someone like Maswanhise stretches the game and looks to maximise the impact of his speed.
The Steelmen’s main threat comes from set pieces, scoring more goals from set pieces than anyone else in the Premiership. They also boast the best xG in the league out with the Old Firm, and there’s the obvious quality of ball from Miller, whether it’s in switching play quickly or delivering a cross into a dangerous area. The 18-year-old has completed more key passes than anyone else in his squad.
The graphics below compare Motherwell and Hibs when it comes to corner kicks, with the red markers indicating when the attacking team has won the ball and the blue when the defensive team has won possession.
Motherwell's weak spots?
A weakness in Motherwell's attacking approach is that it’s only produced three goals from open play, whilst the shot map below also shows that there’s been a lack of threat from longer-range efforts. The shots with warmer colours indicate a higher xG and cooler colours a lower xG.
Another weakness is the loss of Casey, the central defender of the back three, which could lead to instability and unfamiliarity that the likes of Mykola Kukharevych or Dwight Gayle could take advantage of. Furthermore, Hibs rank in the top four sides for expected goals conceded from set pieces, and improved form from the defensive pairing of Marvin Ekpiteta and Warren O’Hora could have come at just the right time.
Finally, Hibs boast threats that could offer real danger in dribbling situations. As a result of O’Donnell’s tendency to push up the park in possession, should Hibs regain the ball there will be space on that side of the pitch for someone like Junior Hoilett to operate in. The veteran winger has impressed early on in his time at Easter Road and proved at the weekend that he will be tough for any Scottish defence to deal with when he’s got the ball at his feet.
If Hibs can take advantage of these situations, chances and goals may come.
The game provides an opportunity for Gray and his squad to prove that things are heading in the right direction and that Easter Road is no longer an easy place to visit, but Hibernian must be at their best at either end of the park.
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