It's certainly true that the only statistic to really matter is the scoreline.
Hibs fans could be forgiven for being sick fed-up of looking at numbers that paint a different picture to the final outcome of matches, as was the case again as Motherwell snatched a 2-1 victory at Easter Road. But the contrast between the data underpinning Hibs' performances versus the lack of points on the board actually brings us to the crux of the issue.
Hibs are stuttering in the key moments of matches. Not putting away chances, and failing to deal with the dangerous moments in otherwise controlled performances are a dangerous mix, as David Gray's side are discovering to their cost.
'Fine margins' not falling
As was so damaging at Ibrox, the big moments in this game generally did not fall Hibs' way. Gray's side dominated significant chunks of the 90-plus minutes, and it's hard to argue that Motherwell - aside from a second-half spell - offered a great deal from open play. Mykola Kukharevych had the best of Hibs' first-half opportunities as he was denied twice in quick succession by goalkeeper Aston Oxborough, and then with a header cleared off the line moments later. Gray later suggested the striker could have shown greater 'conviction' in those moments, surmising that his penalty miss against Rangers may have affected his confidence. After the break, Kukharevych played Cadden through one-on-one with Oxborough, but again the 'keeper came out on top. The xG race chart below maps out exactly how Hibs were made to pay for not capitalising, with the visitors creating next to nothing until the set-piece routine that led to the opener.
Junior Hoilett cited 'fine margins' in his post-match interview, and there's enough evidence already this season that Hibs are finding ways to ensure they land on the wrong side of them. The phrase lends itself to the comforting idea that success isn't all that far away, but that's never guaranteed. Whether it's not converting opportunities or giving away soft goals, opposition teams will be aware that they do not need to play particularly well to take points off Hibs just now. There were self-destructive mistakes on opening day at St Mirren, a needless late penalty concession against Kilmarnock, losses of concentration to gift Dundee a point, the spot-kick failure at Ibrox, and now conceding two very basic goals from set-plays against a team known for their successful attacking set-plays.
The chart below demonstrates how Hibs' xG has distributed over time, with the red and blue lines denoting 'for' and 'against', respectively. They have generally been above the league average for both metrics, but note how that blue line then goes above the mean in the latter stages of matches.
Creativity issues?
Whether by design, Motherwell's defensive setup, or a struggle to create through the middle of the pitch, much of Hibs' attacking play was funnelled down the flanks. With a physically imposing striker in Kukharevych, and Josh Campbell's knack for crashing into the box at the right time, you can see why Gray may have encouraged his side to work the ball wide and pepper the visitors' backline with testing deliveries.
One outstanding Jordan Obita cross found the head of Kukharevych, only for the forward to be denied by an Oxborough double-save, but Hibs otherwise lacked quality on the day, particularly down the right-hand side - with FotMob data not registering Chris Cadden or Lewis Miller making any successful crosses. On the other side, Obita was credited with one accurate delivery and Hoilett with three, including the several corners he took, many of which failed to clear the first man.
Overall, though, it's clear that getting the ball forward and wide early for a cross delivered very modest returns. The graphic below maps the attempted crosses over the 90 minutes, with successful deliveries coloured red.
Motherwell were compact through the centre of the pitch, and Hibs were unable to consistently find Campbell, tasked with the number ten role, with any consistency. The graphic below shows all passes (successful and failed) into him in the final third across his 62 minutes on the pitch.
Campbell has taken some disproportionate criticism over the last few days, but it's perhaps more pertinent whether the role of a creative ten is one that really suits his skill set. We know he's a capable finisher who works tirelessly out-of-possession, but his minimal influence on a game where Hibs needed a creative spark was telling - and the perception of the boyhood Hibee as a more unorthodox ten was clear to see on Saturday.
Hibs did enjoy some moments through the middle - namely Kukharevych slipping Cadden through in the second half, and Triantis' searching ball to release Hoilett in the first 45 - but both of those came in transition moments with Motherwell out-of-shape, underlining how Hibs toiled to disrupt their shape once they got set.
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Overall, it's a difficult game to analyse. Hibs were in control for long spells and had enough chances to win it without turning in a sparkling attacking display. Concessions must be made for players being unavailable - Martin Boyle was absent from the right flank and it's already clear that this side could do with Kieron Bowie's knack for creating a bit of chaos, a very handy attribute against disciplined defences.
Élie Youan not making it off the bench was a surprise, too, and questions have been asked of Gray sticking with the same team he picked at Ibrox in what was always likely to be a very different game.
Selections become a moot point if those chances are converted, however, and has little to do with players switching off at key moments.
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