A manager might have never used the formation at his previous clubs and certainly not in his time in the Hibernian hot seat; the available players may not necessarily fit the system; it might even be the wrong tactical approach for the specific opposition. Regardless, before certain games, some Hibs supporters pipe up on social media or messageboards with what is often a genuinely innocent query: "Is there anything to be said for playing a back three?"
It's an understandable suggestion for David Gray. Alex McLeish's team of the early 2000s famously made use of a 352 formation with Ulrik Laursen and Alen Orman as wingbacks, and Hibs enjoyed relative success employing a five-man midfield at times under Alan Stubbs, particularly in games against Rangers and, to a lesser extent, Hearts. The former Everton Under-21 boss didn't exclusively use a 352 formation - in fact, he was far more likely to line his team up in a 442 diamond, or 442 with a double pivot - but his use of it in the 2016 Scottish Cup final may have skewed some people's memories and as a formation, it was broadly successful when Stubbs made use of it in big games.
Post-Stubbs, Neil Lennon used a 352 formation for around 25% of games during his tenure, Jack Ross for around a third, Lee Johnson for around a fifth of the games he oversaw, while Shaun Maloney used a variation on 352 in all but two of his 19 matches in charge.
Nick Montgomery stuck to a version of 442 or 4231 with the caveat that quite often it was far more fluid, while Paul Heckingbottom - despite regularly lining out his Sheffield United side in a back three - didn't ever make use of the formation during his time at Easter Road.
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When things aren't going well on the pitch, fans scrabble about for something; anything, to hold onto. "We'll be better when player X is back", or, 'We just need a bit of luck', or, 'We should try a different system'
Should that system be a 352, or some variation thereof? Gray has experience of playing as both the right-wingback and right-sided centre-back in a 352 and certainly has the players to suit the formation - assuming he would continue with his habit of deploying a full-back as one of the outer centre-backs, as he has done with Lewis Miller already this season.
It's hardly a groundbreaking tactical call to stick a full-back in the middle - Maloney also made use of it on occasion with Chris Cadden and Josh Doig fulfilling centre-back roles, and Jordan Obita filled in at centre-back in a back four under Montgomery against Rangers and acquitted himself well.
But would it be worth a shot?
Why 352 - the pros and cons
It's worth taking a wider look at the formation. Carlos Bilardo, who coached Argentina to World Cup glory in 1986, is widely credited with the invention and implementation of the system, primarily as a way of creating space for the legendary Diego Maradona in the final third, but it can also offer a defensive solidity that other systems don't.
Gray has used the 352 twice since his permanent appointment, firstly in the 5-0 Premier Sports Cup group victory over Elgin City at Borough Briggs, and again in the Premier Sports Cup round of 16 defeat by Celtic at Celtic Park. The latter was more of a 532 but it's a broadly similar approach.
The flexible nature of the formation is probably one attraction, in that the three central defenders can be out-and-out centre-backs, or a mixture of centre-backs and full-backs, while the central midfield trio can comprise a mixture of sixes, eights, and tens depending on the opposition. The wide midfielders can either be defensively-minded wingers or attacking full-backs, again depending on the opposition. Up front, there is scope to have two strikers who complement each other - but more on that later.
In short, there are a lot of points making it an attractive formation choice in both an attacking and defensive sense.
The formation leans heavily on the wing-backs, who need to be able to switch seamlessly between defence, midfield, and attack - even if their role is primarily an attacking one. A key advantage of 352 over 433, another formation Gray has used, is that in the latter system, pushing the full-backs higher up the park can leave exploitable space in defensive areas. In a 352, the three central defenders can provide cover.
Winning the midfield battle has been a real problem area for Hibs in recent seasons, and a 352 would certainly help with this by increasing the chance of overloads in numerous areas of the pitch. For example, Warren O'Hora - as the centre-back most comfortable with the ball at his feet - could drive forward from the back and push into midfield, which would leave the opposition outnumbered and potentially confused over who to mark.
For a textbook example of overlapping centre-backs in action, just watch back any of Sheffield United's Premier League games during the 2019/20 campaign.
A 352 allows for ball progression through the centre of the pitch, or down the flanks. The two strikers can drop into midfield to link play and also press the opposition centre-backs to increase the chance of errors.
The main issue with 352 is that it is quite easy to unlock, particularly at this level. The midfield can become too busy if the wing-backs come inside, and if the opposition can find a way through the congested midfield, the chance of counter-attacks and subsequent one-on-one defensive situations is heightened. On top of that, if the players tasked with playing as wing-backs are focused on attacking, it can leave gaps behind them, making it harder to defend wide positions.
In short, for the formation to really be successful, the players have to be constantly switched on and disciplined, and they need to be coached to within an inch of their lives.
Would it benefit Hibs to play 352 more often?
The advantages of a 352 for Hibs are pretty plain to see - an extra man in attack to support Mykola Kukharevych; flexibility in the midfield where Hibs are well stocked and - in theory at least - the prospect of a more solid defensive line.
Gray undoubtedly has the players for a 352 as well - as well as O'Hora and Marvin Ekpiteta, his starting centre-backs, he has Rocky Bushiri, Jack Iredale, Miller, Obita, and Cadden who could all take a centre-back spot in a back three. In terms of wingbacks he could call on Obita or Nicky Cadden on the left, and Cadden or Miller on the right. Martin Boyle's days of operating as a wingback are probably over, however.
In attack, where Hibs have been a little undertooled since Kieron Bowie's injury (which has been laid bare with a low goals return), Gray has Kukharevych, Dwight Gayle, Boyle, Harry McKirdy, and Élie Youan while Josh Campbell or Rudi Molotnikov could be alternatives as a supporting striker rather than an out-and-out centre-forward. Junior Hoilett could also fill in as a second striker but Gray may want to keep him as a wide option.
A nice option to have, with a glaring flaw
With players versatile enough to operate in more than one position, Gray could start with a 352 and change to a back four without necessarily having to make substitutions. But while it's an obvious advantage to have versatile players, that advantage is perhaps cancelled out if some players are having to play in a secondary position, for instance, Boyle through the middle instead of his preferred right-wing role, to accommodate a certain formation.
A 352 doesn't have much room for out-and-out wingers as it is, and while Boyle, Nicky Cadden, Youan, and Hoilett are all capable of fulfilling other roles, would it really be worth deploying them in other positions - or benching them - just to stick with a certain formation?
Another issue is the lack of striker options. Kukharevych is carrying the can at the moment with Bowie sidelined, and Gayle has been used off the bench. While Boyle and Youan can play centrally, both are still returning from injury and are probably better utilised out wide.
For any manager, there is logic in playing a formation that suits the players at your disposal, rather than trying to shoehorn them into the tactics you want to use. From what we've seen so far, Gray is happy to mostly line his side up in a 4231 formation and tweak it for certain games, such as the visits to Celtic and Rangers, as required. Given he still has a squad put together by five previous managers, it makes sense to use a formation with which most of the players - and coaching staff - will be familiar, particularly when the team is still searching for consistency.
Liam Bryce crunched the numbers in a data-driven piece earlier this week and found that Gray has, unsurprisingly, tried to introduce some much-needed change to the way Hibs play in both defence and attack. Although it's a relatively small sample size, the data confirms that Hibs are quicker going forward and gaining more solidity in their defensive third but, most concerningly, are still struggling to find a spark in attack. Without seeking to gloss over Hibs' failings so far this season, there has at least been incremental progress - enough, probably, to suggest it's worth sticking with what they're doing on the training pitch and as players return from injury, trusting performances and results to improve.
An option, not a solution
There are definitely the players to form a 352 formation should Gray choose, but with Hibs struggling for goals, it would seem to make sense to stick with the 4231 system and hope, or perhaps trust, that the return of key players can help add firepower, both in terms of creating chances for others and chipping in themselves.
In his analysis of Kukharevych earlier this week, the Hibs Observer's specialist tactics writer Craig Nisbet voiced his belief that Gray will stick with a lone-striker formation for the foreseeable and outlined why the Ukrainian forward has been mostly performing well as the sole number nine.
It can be difficult to identify any progress being made when profligacy in attack and the concession of late goals remain a feature, but there are elements to the way Gray has Hibs playing that are an improvement on last season.
It all feels very much like baby steps for Hibs at the moment. They are creating plenty of chances - managing nearly 20 total efforts on goal in each game against Rangers and Motherwell - without actually taking them. Gray has repeatedly said he would be more concerned if they weren't creating the opportunities at all, but if Hibs are to avoid another meandering season culminating in the damp squib of a bottom-six finish, they are going to have to start taking more of these chances, starting with Saturday's trip to face Dundee United - a team who, ironically, have enjoyed a successful start to the campaign while playing with a back three.
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