The key Hibs calls David Gray must make for Edinburgh derby

But, during his interim spells in charge and since he got the permanent job back in June, Gray has remained consistent in his approach of only concerning himself with matters on the pitch. He has always brushed off talk of Foley's investment, and even though he met with Bezbatchenko during a recent visit to Edinburgh by the former Columbus Crew chief, what matters most to Gray is the result on matchday. 

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• Hibs head of football operations departs club - but successor is already in post​

So far he has one win in eight league games under his belt. Hibs weren't too far away from making it two at Tannadice, until Joe Newell's red card sparked a late collapse and the concession of two avoidable injury-time goals. So incensed was Gray by how his side had simply folded like a wet napkin that as opposite number Jim Goodwin hit the deck mid-celebration in the wake of Meshack Ubochioma's late winner, the Hibs boss aimed a kick at a nearby water bottle. He either missed or, more likely, at the last minute opted not to launch the plastic container into orbit. 

If only his team had displayed that sort of savvy decision-making on the pitch. 

Hibs host their city rivals on Sunday with a midday kick-off, giving Gray a bit of extra time to ponder what he does for such a monumentally important game. Derbies have enough needle, enough expectation, enough riding on them without going into them with just one win in your last five league matches, a head coach who hasn't been in post that long and who some fans think shouldn't have got the job, and a position at the wrong end of the table. But enough about Hearts.

In all seriousness though, Sunday's match feels even more important than it would have been anyway, if that's possible. Gray is searching for a reaction to the Tannadice debacle, an end to three consecutive defeats, a morale-boosting win, a much-needed three points, a bit of breathing space with regards the security of his own position, and the city bragging rights. 

Before he can think about all that, however, he needs to make a number of key decisions relating to team selection, tactics, personnel, and more. 

Stick with Bursik or change it up?

You could point the finger at any number of guilty parties responsible for the three goals Hibs conceded on Saturday, but perhaps most scandalous of all was Josef Bursik's role in Ubochioma's winner. With Goodwin pushing all but two of his outfield players into the attacking third, United goalkeeper Jack Walton launched the ball in the direction of Kevin Holt on the edge of the Hibs' 18-yard box, and the defender headed it in the general direction of Will Ferry and Jort van der Sande, who were lurking ominously around the penalty spot. 

Disbelief from the Hibs players as Meshack Ubochioma (bottom, centre) wheels away to celebrate (Image: YouTube) But Hibs' Jack Iredale reached the ball first and tried to clear it before being cleaned out by Bursik, who had rushed from his line to punch the ball clear but missed it and connected with the former Bolton man instead. With Iredale grounded and Bursik in no man's land, Ubochioma gently lobbed the ball into the unguarded net.

You could almost hear the 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' theme music as the ball nestled in the goal, home fans streamed onto the pitch, and Iredale, Josh Campbell, Marvin Ekpiteta, Dylan Levitt, Jordan Obita, and Warren O'Hora stood there with arms outstretched, palms skyward, all asking the same question. 

It wasn't the first time during the match that Bursik had looked shaky under pressure and incredibly, not the first time he had collided with Iredale, either. The on-loan Club Brugge 'keeper came in for some criticism in the early part of the season along with his team-mates and earned plaudits for his performance in the 1-0 defeat by Rangers. But he looked nervy and uncomfortable throughout the 90-plus minutes at Tannadice; hardly the best preparation for an Edinburgh derby and especially not for a team that has had more than its fair share of goalkeeping howlers in this fixture. 

Perhaps Gray's most pressing issue is whether he keeps faith in Bursik, which could backfire, or whether he takes the former England Under-21 cap out of the firing line and drafts in backup 'keeper Jordan Smith, whose only competitive action came in the 1-0 defeat by Kelty Hearts during the Premier Sports Cup group stages, or even third-choice Max Boruc, who has actually faced Hearts before and kept a clean sheet, albeit in a 12-minute substitute appearance last year at Tynecastle. 

Hibs goalkeepers Josef Bursik, Max Boruc, and Jordan Smith (Image: SNS Group) Gray will know that another defeat will increase the pressure on his position, and risks a gap opening up in the Scottish Premiership basement - and with a testing trip to Ross County next mid-week followed by back-to-back home games against Dundee United and St Mirren, getting at least a point on Sunday is imperative. 

On the one hand, Bursik will be desperate to perform in a big game and prove that he is not an error-prone goalie. On the other hand, Gray may well have to consider if a change between the sticks could mean fewer jitters in the defence and thus more chance of a positive result. Craig Samson will undoubtedly have a say, but ultimately the final decision has to be the manager's. My bet would be that Bursik will be given a chance to redeem himself. He showed at Ibrox that he has top-drawer saves in his locker - he just needs to be able to get the basics right as well. 

Switch to a back three?

So far, Gray has largely preferred a back four, either in a 4231 or a 433 formation, deviating only slightly for trips to Celtic Park (532) and Rangers (4411). 

However, Lewis Miller's half-time substitution and an early injury suffered by Chris Cadden forced a change first to a 3421 formation, then 3412 in the second half against Dundee United and Hibs looked far better, far more comfortable on the ball, more threatening, and more. Goodwin stated that he felt Hibs had been the better team in the second half, even before Dwight Gayle's header put them 2-1 in front. 

Hibs will conduct a spying mission when Hearts face Omonoia in Gorgie tonight, but new manager Neil Critchley lined his side up in a 442 for their convincing win against St Mirren and could do so again in Leith this weekend, regardless of what system he adopts in Europe, but it should give Gray and his coaching staff food for thought at the very least.

Cadden's potential absence could also force a rethink for Gray. He's not the only player capable of operating as a right-wingback - Martin Boyle and Lewis Miller can also do it - but he feels like the most natural fit. Boyle fulfilled the role at Tannadice and has done so in the past, and he could be asked to play there again if Gray does opt for a 352.

Or, Gray could ask Boyle to play up top alongside Mykola Kukharevych in a strike partnership which would mean Miller being utilised as the right-wingback. The three-man defence would then be made up of three from Iredale, Ekpiteta, O'Hora, and Bushiri.

With Joe Newell missing through suspension, Nectar Triantis will almost certainly come back into the starting lineup in midfield alongside Kwon Hyeok-kyu but that third midfield position, which could either be a central role alongside Kwon with Triantis screening a back three, a more advanced playmaker role in front of Kwon and Triantis in a 4231 or a 352, or a third central midfield role in a five could be crucial. Campbell, Rudi Molotnikov, or possibly Levitt or Nathan Moriah-Welsh would appear to be the likely candidates for whichever option Gray chooses. 

Junior Hoilett's versatility means he could in theory play in behind a front two, or as one of two supporting forwards behind a lone number nine but if both Chris and Nicky Cadden are sidelined, and there is doubt over Élie Youan's readiness, then Hoilett may be earmarked for a wide role either from the start, or from the bench if Gray wants to have the option to change things up. 

We know Gray likes having the ability to switch systems mid-game without having to make a host of substitutions so it's also possible he starts with a back four but gives himself the option to change things depending on how the game pans out. 

The Youan factor

This time last year Youan lit up the Edinburgh derby at Tynecastle, scoring two goals in as many minutes to earn Hibs a point under Nick Montgomery. Speaking afterwards the mercurial French forward admitted he had been threatened at half-time with an early hooking in the second period if he didn't find an extra level. He duly did so with two well-taken finishes. 

But he has barely featured this season, with one 25-minute substitute appearance during the Premier Sports Cup group stages culminating in a rather lengthy injury lay-off, and on his return just 45 minutes in the 2-0 win against St Johnstone and 22 minutes against Rangers at Ibrox, failing to set the heather alight in either outing and not getting off the bench against either Motherwell or Dundee United. 

Could Élie Youan burst back onto the scene this weekend? (Image: SNS Group) But it would be typical of him to make a stunning return to action and form against Hearts, wouldn't it? This is a player who thrives on the big occasion, who can conjure something out of nothing, tie opposition defenders in knots, and get fans off their seats. His goal involvements over the past two and a bit seasons speak for themselves, making his strained relationship with some sections of the fanbase all the more baffling. 

All Gray has to do is work out how to get him firing on all cylinders. We should get an update from the head coach during today's press conference that might shed a bit more light on the situation but the fact remains that, enigmatic though he is, Youan has that little bit of X-factor that could make all the difference in a game like this. 

A tale of two strikers

Dwight Gayle climbed off the bench against Dundee United and opened his account for Hibs, scoring what in most cases for most teams, would have been the winner. 

The experienced striker fronted up after the game and spoke to the media, being brutally honest about his team-mates and the side's performance. 

"I think we've got to hold ourselves a lot more accountable. I feel like we're not digging each other out enough. Maybe we're all too nice to each other, but each week someone else is letting the team down. Other teams are not really cutting us open, and we're letting ourselves down, giving easy goals away, or not finishing chances off. It's costing us," Gayle said. 

The former Newcastle and Crystal Palace forward is yet to start a game for Hibs, with Gray opting for the sizeable frame and presence of Mykola Kukharevych as the number nine in his preferred 4231. But we saw a glimpse of the pair playing together last weekend, and they certainly tick all the boxes of the 'little-and-large' strike partnership arrangement. 

David Gray watches on as Dwight Gayle, left, takes part in an open training session at Easter Road (Image: SNS Group) Gray has a big problem if he starts both together: no out-and-out centre-forwards in reserve. Were the pair to start against Hearts, there wouldn't be a lot of options on the bench. Sure, there would be enough in the way of attackers, but - perhaps crucially - no natural centre-forwards, with Harry McKirdy often used out wide and Boyle and Youan also seeming to be more effective on the flanks than through the middle. 

Campbell has played as an auxiliary centre-forward at times, in more of a supporting striker role, and his energy could be helpful against Hearts. Chosen to start against Rangers, his performance was energetic and played a part in keeping Hibs in the game, but he lacked the same impact against Motherwell six days later. The boyhood Hibee could start on Sunday and be asked to put in the same sort of shift he did at Ibrox - Gray is not the first manager to task Campbell with fulfilling a specific role in the so-called big games. 

 But again, a lot depends on the system Gray chooses and the players he selects to start. 

Could Gayle start as the number nine in a 4231? Potentially, but Gray might fancy keeping him as an option off the bench to throw on in the second half when Hearts could be tiring after their European exploits on Thursday night.

Could Gray shake things up?

Would we be surprised if Gray made a handful of changes for this fixture? I'm not so sure we would, because he certainly cut a furious figure in the media room on Saturday evening, suggesting that some players might be in the last-chance saloon, while others may already have their cards marked. 

Detractors have accused him of having favourites in the squad. I don't think that's strictly true; I see it more as picking players who he trusts and who he thinks are the right fit for certain matches. As an inexperienced manager he is still learning, and it's natural that he will make mistakes. You could argue he got it right against Rangers at Ibrox (and had Kukharevych scored his penalty, who knows what might have happened) and wrong against Motherwell the following week. 

David Gray will be hoping to mastermind a victory over Hibs' city rivals (Image: SNS Group) His decision to change shape in the wake of Cadden's injury last weekend also produced some decent passages of play from Hibs, and it's hard to point the finger at Gray for his goalkeeper having a brainfart moment, in the same way that he can't be held responsible for Kukharevych's poor penalty or a defensive cock-up. 

Hibs have played well in portions of matches so far without getting any rewards, save for the victory over St Johnstone, and the law of averages would surely state that, sooner or later, things will go right and everything will click. 

There's no getting away from the fact that this is a huge game for Gray, for Hibs, and for the players. I don't want to say it's bigger than any other derby because, by their very definition, derbies are among the most important fixtures for both clubs every season.

But there's a lot riding on this one. A lot.