What was most noticeable in the aftermath of James Wilson's equaliser for Hearts in Sunday's Scottish Premiership derby was not the raucous exuberance from the visiting supporters in the South Stand - that was to be expected. It was the lack of any sort of reaction from the Hibernian fans, and not just because they were being drowned out by their noisy neighbours.
To Hibs' credit, they did fight back after conceding rather than capitulating. Craig Gordon was called into action very soon after Wilson's goal, and although it was an ultimately futile effort, it was a tiny crumb of comfort that David Gray's side didn't just fold like a pack of cards once again.
The lack of reaction from the home support tells a story. Not overwhelmingly angry, because Hibs have unfortunately made the concession of late goals a habit; and not overwhelmingly positive, because Hibs have shown very little appetite to bounce back from in-game setbacks.
But the statistics make for rather sobering reading.
More than half of the 15 league goals conceded by Hibs so far in the 2024/25 campaign have been scored in the 75th minute or later. Of those eight goals, five have been in the 85th minute or later and three of that five have been scored in injury time.
The latest Hibs have scored is in the 72nd minute, on three occasions; the earliest they've scored a goal is the 43rd minute - Warren O'Hora's equaliser against Dundee United. Boyle and Mykola Kukharevych have both scored in the first half as well, on 45 minutes and 45+1 minutes respectively.
Unsurprisingly, teams in the upper echelons of the Scottish Premiership tend to have xG lines higher than their xGC lines throughout the 90 minutes. But for teams at the opposite end, it's not unusual for their xGC lines to be higher than their xG arcs for the entirety of the 90 minutes.
Hearts and Hibs both buck this trend slightly, with Hearts' xG overtaking their xGC from about 66 minutes onwards and Hibs' being bottom but having a higher xG than xGC until the final ten minutes.
That slight increase in xGC just after half-time, allied with a diminishing xG trend from around the 55-minute mark, could benefit Hibs, who have scored six of their nine league goals between the 43rd and 65th minutes.
In a weird quirk, Hibs' other three goals have all been scored in the 72nd minute - including goals by Dwight Gayle against Dundee United and Kieron Bowie against Dundee, which in both cases made the scoreline 2-1 in favour to Hibs, before they went on to lose and draw respectively with late goals conceded in both instances.
Did going ahead with fewer than 20 minutes instil a sense of 'job done' in the team? Could the St Johnstone game, which included the third 72nd-minute goal, scored by Boyle, have gone in a similar direction if the visitors hadn't had such a low xG, of 0.14 to Hibs' 1.50?
What could work in Hibs' favour tonight is that even when their xGC nudges above their xG, Ross County's xG also slides.
So while the Dingwall outfit don't have the same predilection for conceding late goals, if Hibs can shore up at the back and make the most of their attacking opportunities, they might get a bit more joy tonight.
But it's a big if.
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