It's always easier in this line of work when the manager says it for you. Mind you, it didn't take any great depth of analysis to figure it out.
"A real lack of quality in the final third," admitted David Gray after Hibs and Ross County played out a mostly dire stalemate on Wednesday night. The result did, at least, move Hibs off the bottom of the Scottish Premiership, but the few hundred fans who travelled to the Highlands, and however many watched on from afar, will be taking little comfort from the outcome - even jumping up a place came at the expense of Hearts losing at home to Kilmarnock after leading at half-time.
Hibs offered their supporters little to suggest they are now on an upward trajectory. It's true that not many teams visit Dingwall and win these days - Ross County's survival plan is based heavily on their solid home form - but this was another 90 minutes that served to further muddy the waters around Gray's Hibs. They look like a team that isn't quite sure what it's supposed to be.
Hibs did register a higher xG than County, but 0.63 is a very modest return that reflects Gray's assessment that his team's final ball was not good enough. By comparison, they registered an xG of 1.52 against Hearts when they created a number of opportunities but ultimately failed to take most of them.
Hibs again created a greater number of opportunities than their opponents on Wednesday night, but you could argue that the closest either side came to scoring was County's Jordan White, his header from a free-kick well saved by Josef Bursik.
Hibs' night was characterised by working half-decent positions and failing to capitalise. There seems to be an emphasis on getting the ball wide as the primary route of chance creation, which is logical with the likes of Elie Youan and Martin Boyle in the side. But while Hibs have attacking talent at their disposal, they're struggling to get them the ball in threatening positions with any consistency.
Youan's best moments against County were when he drifted inwards, having a shot narrowly miss the target and setting up Kukharevych for a turn and strike that he could've done better with. Boyle was fairly anonymous, and it's difficult to recall Hibs working many situations where either man was able to isolate a full-back. StatsBomb's match numbers reported Youan and Boyle dribbling past defenders only twice apiece, albeit the Frenchman did look lively and threatening in his general play, and was almost granted a free role at times to drift centrally and even over to the right-hand side.
A wider theme on the night was toiling to create overloads in the final third from which Hibs could tee up good quality opportunities. Gray's side registered 12 shots, but seven of those were from outside the 18-yard box. A Kukharevych effort that registered just 0.13xG was Hibs' 'best' of the evening.
Their xG per-shot from open play was just 0.052. Taking lots of shots from range is often symptomatic of a struggle to break opponents down, and County will have ended the game feeling satisfied that Hibs didn't carve them open with regularity. Hibs worked several crossing positions, but so often they were over- or under-hit. Teams like County, with three centre-backs on the pitch, would surely much rather you pepper their box with crosses than cut through them with incisive passing.
Gray was justified in saying that keeping a clean sheet away from home is always a positive, and his backline were Hibs' best performers. But while they managed to buck one trend of conceding cheaply for one night, there was another that continues to be a puzzler. Hibs didn't start the game particularly well, and haven't done all season. The opening few minutes in Dingwall suggested that might change, but it didn't last, and County enjoyed more possession and territory through a significant chunk of the opening 45. Gray felt County 'shaded' the first period, and that Hibs were 'flat'. The race chart below shows Hibs as accruing slightly more xG, but still heading in at the break with only 0.20.
Gray was correct in assessing his team's performance in the second half as having more urgency and more aggression, but the key issue remained - a lack of quality. This isn't a team that aren't grafting for their manager, but at the moment it feels like they're wrestling with an identity crisis.
Are they playing direct football? Sometimes. Are they looking to build through the lines? Also sometimes.
Gray spoke in his first press conference about instilling an 'identity' while being adaptable, which suggested he wanted players to show qualities he considered non-negotiable without being wedded to a particular style or system. At the time, many Hibs fans saw this as a welcome break from Nick Montgomery's perceived unwillingness to be pragmatic and flexible when required. As things stand, though, there is evidence that Gray's Hibs are straying too far in the opposite direction. Whether it's direct football or more possession-based, we're yet to see where this team's long-term future lies.
Read more:
- David Gray pinpoints what Hibs lacked in Ross County draw
- Hibs instant analysis: Winless run extends amid creativity issues
- What do stats tell us about Hibs' late-goal hoodoo?
Speculation around the head coach's position is premature - he's had ten league games with a revamped squad, a £600,000 striker missing for most of that, and it's simply not enough time to judge him fairly.
The deep-rooted issues at Hibs predate his appointment by several years, and the club's vicious cycle of hiring and firing managers has created a situation whereby he's trying to embed new faces while also working with a raft of players accumulated under a number of his predecessors who will be out of contract at the end of the season. But while fan anger will be primarily directed at the boardroom until fortunes improve, Gray will be fully aware that he's under pressure to produce performances and results that suggest he's the man to lead this rebuild long-term.
The overriding feeling from a dull night in Dingwall is that he's currently overseeing a side that feels less than the sum of its parts, and that has to change if Hibs are to drag themselves away from the wrong end of the Premiership table.
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