Hibs instant analysis as Rangers claim narrow victory

Tom Lawrence scored the only goal of the game in a first-half where Mykola Kukharevych had a penalty saved by Jack Butland. Lawrence's unstoppable strike from the left-hand side of the 18-yard box was also checked at length for by VAR before ruled onside. The margins were fine, and it became the story of Hibs' afternoon that those key moments did not fall their way.

A handball from John Souttar in the six-yard box handed David Gray's side a golden chance to equalise on the cusp of half-time, but Kukharevych's effort was smothered by Butland. Hibs largely frustrated Rangers throughout, while also creating chances of their own, but they ultimately lacked a clinical edge.

Hibs defensively solid

There was some suggestion pre-match that the inclusion of both Lewis Miller and Chris Cadden in the Hibs XI would facilitate a switch to a 5-3-2, with Junior Hoilett playing off Kukharevych. But rather than deviate significantly from the shape he'd settled on in the last few weeks, Gray set up  4-4-1-1 with the returning Josh Campbell playing off the striker. His inclusion came at the expense of Rudi Molotnikov, perhaps sensibly given a break having already featured extensively this season. 

Defensively, Hibs played well despite coming away with nothing to show for it. Their off-ball shape was good, with one of either Campbell or Kukharevych blocking routes into the influential Connor Barron at the base of Rangers' midfield, instead funnelling the home side into wide areas, mostly down their left. It was sensible, organised and, for the most part, effective. As expected, Rangers commanded the bulk of  possession, but very times at all in the game did Hibs find themselves stretched or exposed. Considering the bigger picture, it's an encouraging long-term sign that Hibs were well-drilled and hard to beat. On the day, though, it might just heighten the frustration that they weren't able to take anything from an off-colour Rangers.

Momentary lapse punished

Take nothing away from Lawrence's finish, it's a stunner, underlined by FotMob attributing an xG of just 0.04. It was also subject to a long VAR check, with the midfielder ruled to be marginally onside as the ball came his way. The gap to find him was created by Lewis Miller going to ground in a tussle with Lawrence just moments before, and afterwards Hibs were unable to block the shot. Once it left Lawrence's boot, it left Bursik with no chance whatsoever, that 0.04xG rising to 0.7xG post-shot. Fine margins are so often the difference on these days, with Hibs unable to turn the moments that mattered into moments that went their way. 

Pena​lty miss so costly

You can't really pass up these kinds of opportunities at places like Ibrox. Following a long wait while VAR ran the rule over a handball by John Souttar, Kukharevych did not look especially confident as he sized up Jack Butland twelve yards in front of him. His effort was a very tame one, stuttering en-route in an unconvincing attempt to find the bottom left corner. The timing would have been so significant too, had the Ukrainian found the net; right on the cusp of half-time with Ibrox already a little tetchy amid the home side's fairly middling first 45 minutes. Another 'what if' moment for Hibs against one of the Glasgow sides.

Positives to take?

The result was no different, but this felt like a better Hibs performance - and gameplan - compared to their two visits to Govan last season, where on both occasions they conceded some extremely soft and preventable goals. Bursik was called into action a few times to prevent a second Rangers goal, but Hibs will make their case for having had more than enough opportunities to have merited a point. Gray's tactics were sound, as were his selections, and the second-half substitutes came at what felt like the right time. Hibs had an extended spell on top in the second-half, exemplified by just how fiery and frustrated the home crowd became. 

There was certainly an evident blueprint there for how to compete at these venues, but what Gray needs now is for his players to be able to take the next step and capitalise in the big moments. They didn't quite do that here, most notably with the Kukharevych penalty. Hoilett had a first-half chance, Kwon alone had three shots, and debutant Dwight Gayle came close with a header that just whistled past Butland's post. It wasn't enough, but there are elements of this that Hibs can certainly build on.